Independent voter turnout surpasses Democrats, ties Republicans: Edison research report
In a historic shift, self-identified independents accounted for a larger share of voters than Democrats in Tuesday’s US presidential election, tying with Republicans for the largest voter bloc, according to exit polling data from Edison Research.
This marks the first time since Edison began exit polling in 2004 that independents have surpassed one of the two major political parties in terms of voter turnout.
The latest data shows that 34% of voters identified as independents, compared to 34% for Republicans and 32% for Democrats.
This marks an 8-percentage-point increase from the 2020 election, when independents made up 26% of the electorate.
The surge in independent turnout reflects a growing trend of voters distancing themselves from the two-party system and signals a shift in how critical swing states may be decided in 2024.
Independents, who have often been seen as the key deciding factor in closely contested elections, are expected to play a major role in determining the outcome of this year's race.
As of the latest results, Republican candidate Donald Trump and Democratic candidate Kamala Harris are neck and neck among independent voters, with Trump gaining ground compared to the previous election.
Currently, Trump has secured key victories in critical battleground states, including Florida, Georgia, and North Carolina.
His swing state victories including Fox News predictions of a projected win in Pennsylvania increased his likelihood toward securing the 270 electoral votes needed.
While independents historically favored Democratic candidates, the 2024 election has seen a significant shift in Trump’s favor among this crucial voting bloc.
In the latest exit polls, 45% of independents indicated they voted for Trump, compared to 50% for Harris. This represents a 4-percentage-point improvement for Trump from 2020, when he earned 41% of the independent vote, while Harris garnered 55%.
Despite Democrats retaining a slight edge among independents overall, Trump’s gains reflect his growing appeal to voters who are disillusioned with the current political establishment.
This shift is particularly important in key swing states where independents can determine the outcome of the election.
The increasing influence of independent voters in the 2024 election underscores the challenges facing both parties, as neither has a clear majority of the electorate.
For the Democrats, the rise of independent voters presents a significant hurdle, particularly in swing states where Trump has been making gains.
To secure a victory, Harris must work to consolidate support among independents while energizing core Democratic voters in urban areas and marginalized communities.
Meanwhile, Trump’s campaign is likely to continue its focus on economic issues, national security, and appealing to the growing discontent among independent voters with the current administration.
The surge in independent voter turnout will play a critical role in the outcome of several key battleground states, including Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Arizona, and Nevada, where the race is expected to remain tight.
In these states, independent voters could ultimately decide the direction of the election, especially in districts where the Republican and Democratic bases are closely matched.
As the 2024 election continues to unfold, both parties will need to adjust their strategies to address the concerns of independent voters.
The shift in voter behavior suggests that the traditional two-party system is under increasing pressure, and candidates will need to engage with a broader, more diverse electorate to secure a victory.
The continued rise of independent voters is likely to shape the future of US elections, and 2024 could prove to be a pivotal moment in the ongoing evolution of the American political landscape.