Majority of voters fearing for democracy, exit polls show

Preliminary national exit polls from Edison Research indicate that nearly three-quarters of voters in Tuesday’s presidential election believe American democracy is under threat, illustrating the widespread concern following a highly contentious race between Democrat Kamala Harris and Republican Donald Trump.

The data shows that democracy and the economy were the top issues for voters, each cited by about a third of respondents, with abortion and immigration following at 14% and 11%, respectively. Approximately 73% of voters viewed democracy as at risk, compared to 25% who felt it was secure.

The findings highlight the stark polarisation in the United States, where divisions have deepened during this competitive campaign.

Trump’s campaign has been marked by increasingly severe rhetoric and baseless claims questioning the reliability of the electoral system.

In contrast, Harris has called for unity, warning that a second term for Trump would endanger the foundations of American democracy.

These figures represent a portion of the electorate that voted both before and on Election Day, with preliminary results subject to further updates as more data becomes available.

The exit polls also revealed that 44% of voters viewed Trump favourably, down from 46% in the 2020 exit polls, when he was defeated by Joe Biden. Harris was seen favourably by 48% of respondents, slightly lower than Biden’s 52% in 2020.

Harris aimed to secure high support from female voters to balance her weaker appeal among men. Women constituted 53% of the electorate, nearly the same as 2020's 52%. The share of voters without a college degree, a group that tends to support Trump, was at 57%, a slight decrease from 59% in 2020.

The race remained closely contested after an intense campaign period marked by significant events, including two assassination attempts on Trump, Biden’s unexpected withdrawal, and Harris’s rapid political rise. Both candidates pushed for support as voters queued calmly to cast their ballots and decide between two starkly different visions for the nation.

Trump, known for repeatedly asserting false claims of victory in the 2020 election and whose supporters attacked the U.S. Capitol on 6 January 2021, cast his vote near his home in Palm Beach, Florida.

He stated, “If I lose an election, if it's a fair election, I’m gonna be the first one to acknowledge it.” Harris, who had already voted by mail in California, spent part of Tuesday giving radio interviews to encourage voting and later planned to speak at Howard University in Washington, her alma mater. She expressed her pride in returning to Howard, saying it was meaningful to reflect on the significance of the day.

National exit polls offer insights into voters’ perspectives and shifts in voter turnout among demographic groups but may not align precisely with the outcomes in the seven battleground states crucial for determining the election winner. These states—Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin — were shown by pre-election opinion polls to be closely contested.

Regardless of the outcome, history will be made. If Harris, 60, is elected, she would be the first woman, the first Black woman, and the first South Asian American to become president. If Trump, 78, wins, he would be the first president to serve non-consecutive terms in over a century and the only president to have been impeached twice and criminally convicted.

The control of both the US Senate and the House of Representatives is also uncertain. Republicans are seen to have an advantage in the Senate, where Democrats are defending seats in traditionally Republican states, while the House race appears too close to call.