NBC Poll: Harris and Trump neck-and-neck, Gender gap evident

The final national NBC News poll of the 2024 presidential campaign indicates a razor-thin contest between Democrat Kamala Harris and Republican Donald Trump, driven by contrasting factors that have shaped support for both candidates in the pursuit of the White House.

The poll results reveal a 49%-49% deadlock among registered voters for Harris and Trump in a direct match-up, with just 2% undecided. Harris is bolstered by increasing Democratic enthusiasm, a 20-point lead over Trump on the issue of abortion, and an edge on who is perceived as better supporting the middle class. Trump, in turn, finds strength among voters who feel the country is on the wrong path, rate his past presidency favorably compared to President Biden’s, and credit him with handling the economy and cost of living effectively.

Source: NBC News national poll

Polarization remains a defining aspect of the race, with a notable gender gap of 34 points showing strong divides in voter preferences along gender lines. Women favor Harris by a 16-point margin (57%-41%), while men lean toward Trump by 18 points (58%-40%). Despite the heated campaign activities in recent weeks, the survey shows little movement from the previous month, indicating stable and entrenched voter preferences.

"This data remains very stable from where we stood in October," stated Democratic pollster Jeff Horwitt of Hart Research Associates, who conducted the survey with Republican pollster Bill McInturff of Public Opinion Strategies. McInturff added, “We’ve grown further apart, each side is as locked down as it gets." If third-party candidates are factored in, Trump leads narrowly at 47% to Harris's 46%, with 7% backing other candidates or undecided—figures unchanged from October.

Source: NBC News national poll

In a more favorable Republican turnout scenario, which would mean slightly higher participation among men, white voters, and non-college-educated voters, Trump edges out with 50%-48%. Conversely, a Democratic-leaning turnout, marked by increased participation of women, college-educated whites, and people of color, sees Harris ahead by 50%-47%. These results fall within the poll's margin of error of ±3.1 percentage points.

Given the Electoral College’s pivotal role, battleground states like Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin will be critical to determining the ultimate outcome. Recent polling in these areas reflects similarly close margins.

Key demographic divides

Among different voter demographics, Harris has her strongest support from Black voters (87%-9%), young voters under 30 (57%-41%), and college-educated white voters (55%-43%). Trump finds favor among rural voters (75%-23%), white voters (56%-42%), and non-college-educated white voters (64%-34%).

Independent voters lean towards Harris with an 8-point advantage, 51%-43%. Among Latino voters, Harris is ahead by 9 points (53%-44%), though the sample size for this group is limited and has a higher margin of error.

Source: NBC News national poll

Issue-focused support

On key issues, Harris holds a significant lead on abortion, with a 20-point advantage over Trump on handling the issue. She is also seen as more supportive of the middle class, leading Trump by 9 points (51%-42%) in this area.

Trump, however, leads by double digits on the economy (51%-41%) and cost of living (52%-40%), and holds a 25-point advantage on immigration and border security, consistently his strongest issue.

Voters remain divided on which candidate embodies change (46% for Harris, 41% for Trump) and on competence (47% favor Trump, 45% favor Harris). This represents a slight shift from October, when more voters viewed Harris as the more competent choice (48%-43%).

Source: NBC News national poll

Impact of Biden’s approval

President Joe Biden's low approval rating continues to be a challenge for Harris, with 41% of voters approving of his performance compared to 58% disapproving. This marks a slight decline from October’s 43% approval. Meanwhile, 48% of voters approve of Trump’s past presidency compared to 51% disapproval—unchanged from the previous month.

Source: NBC News national poll

Voters are split on their concerns: 41% worry Harris would continue Biden’s policies, while 40% fear Trump would repeat his previous administration’s approach. Another 14% are unconcerned by either prospect.

Voting trends and turnout

Early voting has surged, with 54% of registered voters saying they’ve already cast their ballots and another 11% planning to do so before Election Day. Harris leads by 7 points (53%-46%) among early voters, a stark contrast to Biden's 20-point advantage over Trump in the 2020 election. Republicans have ramped up efforts to mobilize early voters this year.

Among voters waiting until Election Day, Trump leads by 16 points (56%-40%), down from his nearly 30-point advantage in this group four years ago.

Additional poll insights

Regardless of the election’s outcome, 60% of voters believe the U.S. will remain divided, compared to 28% who expect greater unity. Harris and Trump have nearly identical popularity ratings, with 43% viewing Harris favorably against 50% unfavorably, while Trump’s ratings are 42% positive and 51% negative.

In the congressional races, 47% of voters prefer Democratic control, while 46% favor Republicans—a virtually unchanged split from October’s poll.

The NBC News poll, conducted from Oct. 30 to Nov. 2 among 1,000 registered voters, has a margin of error of ±3.1 percentage points.