Harris holds a 4-point advantage over Trump: latest poll by PBS News/NPR/Marist
Vice President Kamala Harris leads former President Donald Trump by 4 points among likely voters nationally, according to the latest PBS News/NPR/Marist poll.
The poll added tha, as the 2024 presidential election approaches, Harris garners support from 51% of likely voters compared to Trump's 47%, placing her lead just beyond the poll's margin of error of 3.5 points.
PHOTO: Graphics by Jenna Cohen/ PBS News
While more than half of independent voters support Trump, giving him a slight edge over Harris, Marist Institute for Public Opinion director Lee Miringoff commented, “It has been and remains a close election.
As far as the popular vote is concerned, it’s hers to lose.” The election campaign has been unprecedented, marked by significant events such as a sitting president withdrawing from the race just months before the election and the first woman of color nominated by a major party.
Despite these dramatic events, voter sentiments mirror the electorate from 2020 when Biden won 51% of the popular vote against Trump’s 47%. “We’ve gone through all of this to get back to…pretty much where you ended up four years ago,” Miringoff noted, suggesting that the Electoral College might reflect a similar outcome.
Shifts in voter demographics have influenced support for both candidates. The gender gap has decreased, with Trump maintaining a lead among men but seeing it shrink from 16 points to just 4 points since October.
PHOTO: Graphics by Jenna Cohen/ PBS News
Meanwhile, 55% of women support Harris, though her advantage among women has also narrowed from 18 points to 11 points.
In terms of race, Trump leads Harris among white voters by 54% to 45%, which is an improvement for Harris compared to 2020.
However, her support among Black and Latino voters has slightly declined, with 83% of likely Black voters and 61% of likely Latino voters indicating their support.
In her closing campaign efforts, Harris has aimed to attract disenchanted Republican voters, even campaigning alongside former Republican officials who endorse her.
This strategy appears effective, as the poll reveals 8% of Republicans now plan to vote for her, double the number of Democrats considering Trump.
Early voting is underway, with over 78 million ballots already cast. Among those who have voted, Harris leads Trump 56% to 42%. However, among those yet to vote, 53% support Trump, while 45% support Harris.
As Election Day looms, poll data, such as a recent Des Moines Register poll showing Harris with a 3-point lead in Iowa, is creating a buzz. Still, both parties emphasize that the final results are what truly matters.
Concerns surrounding democracy and inflation dominate voter priorities, with 51% of Harris supporters prioritizing democracy preservation, while Trump supporters focus on inflation and immigration.
If the election results are unfavorable for their chosen candidate, 71% of likely voters believe the loser should accept the results.
However, Trump continues to propagate claims about the 2020 election being stolen, with 43% of his supporters suggesting he should contest the results if he loses this time.
In anticipation of potential unrest, heightened security measures are in place around the White House and Capitol, and 72% of likely voters express concerns about election-related violence.