Harris vs Trump is too close to call

A presidential election unlike any other in US history entered its last full day on Monday with Donald Trump and Kamala Harris scrambling for an edge in a tight contest each portrays as an existential moment for America.
Even after the astonishing blur of events of the last few months, the electorate is divided down the middle, both nationally and in the seven battleground states expected to determine the outcome.
The winner may not be known for days after Tuesday’s vote. Former President Trump, a 78-year-old Republican, survived two assassination attempts weeks after a New York City jury made him the first former US president to be convicted of a felony.
Vice President Harris, 60, was catapulted to the top of the Democratic ticket in July - giving her a chance to become the first woman to hold the world’s most powerful job – after President Joe Biden, 81, ended his reelection bid after a disastrous debate performance against Trump prompted calls from his party to drop out.
For all of that turmoil, the contours of the race have changed little, and opinion polls have shown Harris and Trump running neck and neck since the summer. More than 80 million voters have already cast ballots in early voting, according to the University of Florida’s Election Lab, and both candidates plan to spend the campaign’s final hours doing everything they can to ensure their remaining supporters vote on Tuesday.
“It’s ours to lose,” Trump told thousands of supporters gathered in Raleigh, North Carolina, one of the seven battleground states. “If we get everybody out and vote, there’s not a thing they can do.”
In Scranton, Pennsylvania, Harris urged several hundred volunteers to enjoy the moment as they headed out to knock on doors. “We all have so much more in common than what separates us,” she said.
Both campaigns are projecting optimism. Harris’ campaign team believes the sheer size of its voter mobilization efforts is making a difference, and says its volunteers knocked on hundreds of thousands of doors in each of the battleground states this weekend.
“We are feeling very good about where we are right now,” campaign chair Jen O’Malley Dillon told reporters. The campaign says its internal data shows that undecided voters, particularly women, are breaking in their favor, and says it has seen an increase in early voting among core parts of its coalition, including young voters and voters of color.

GENDER GAP

Trump’s campaign has outsourced most of the work to outside groups, including one run by tech billionaire Elon Musk, which have focused on contacting supporters who do not reliably participate in elections, rather than undecided voters.
Aides said they were monitoring early-voting results that show more women have voted than men -- a potential concern, given Harris’ emphasis on abortion rights.
“Men must vote!” Musk wrote on his X social media platform. Harris led Trump by 50% to 38% among women registered voters responding to an October Reuters/Ipsos poll, while Trump led among men 48% to 41%.
Trump said he was heartened by robust early-voting numbers in the hurricane-ravaged western counties of North Carolina, which have leaned Republican in past elections.
One official said they thought Trump would carry North Carolina, Georgia and Arizona, which would still require him to carry one of battleground states in the Rust Belt -- Michigan, Wisconsin or Pennsylvania -- to win the White House. Republicans also appeared to be posting strong early-vote results in Nevada.
“The numbers show that President Trump is going to win this race,” senior adviser Jason Miller told reporters. “We feel very good about where things are.”

FALSE FRAUD CLAIMS

Trump and his allies, who falsely claim his 2020 defeat was the result of fraud, have spent months laying the groundwork to again challenge the result if he loses.
He has promised “retribution” if elected, spoken of prosecuting his political rivals and described Democrats as the “enemy within”.
Trump believes concerns about the economy and high prices, especially for food and rent, will carry him to the White House. After his Raleigh rally, he will campaign in Reading and Pittsburgh in Pennsylvania and Grand Rapids, Michigan. He then plans to return to Palm Beach, Florida, to vote and await election results.
Harris will campaign in five Pennsylvania cities, ending the day with a rally in front of the Philadelphia Museum of Art, which will include performances by Lady Gaga, Ricky Martin and Oprah Winfrey.
She is expected to spend election night at Howard University in Washington, a historically Black college that is her alma mater. Pennsylvania is the biggest prize among the battleground states, offering 19 of the 270 Electoral College votes a candidate needs to win the presidency.
Nonpartisan US election analysts calculate Harris needs to win about 45 electoral votes on top of the states she is expected to win easily to capture the White House, while Trump would need about 51.