Race to the White House - will the result rewrite history?

If Kamala Harris beats Donald Trump in the American Presidential Election being held today and occupies the White House, she will become the first female president of the United States of America. In the 247 years of American history, no woman has been elected to the Office of the American President. On the contrary, if Trump, a former president who lost the 2020 election, makes a comeback to White House, he will be one of a very few former presidents – like Grover Cleveland, in 1888 – to win a re-election after first suffering a defeat.

On the America election map, red represents the Republican party and blue represents the Democratic party. To win the election, a candidate has to secure 270 electoral votes from the 538 up for grabs. There has been a neck-and-neck competition between Trump and Harris, and the results in the battleground states of Georgia, Nevada, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Arizona will decide the fate of the November 5 presidential election. Trump – who still pedals the narrative that he was robbed of his mandate in the 2020 election and that if he loses this time too, he will not accept the results – is somebody who can do anything to gain power. Trump entered politics as a property tycoon with no support base in the Republican Party. But with his ideology focusing on anti-immigration; resisting the demographic transformation of US from a heavily white country 100 years ago to one with a surging non-white population; and protecting the interests of rich Americans, Trump gained support from large segments of angry white males composed of college drop-outs and unemployed youths.

Never ever in the US electoral history, a losing president has rejected the election results to the extent that his supporters stormed the Capitol Hill in Washington DC at a time when the incoming president was being declared winner officially. Facing cases involving hush money, fraud and election subversion, Trump managed to get the Republican party ticket to re-contest the 2024 election. When President Joseph Biden abandoned the presidential election race half way, Trump and his supporters thought they can easily defeat Harris, who replaced Biden as the Democratic party candidate. But, as the election campaign gained momentum, it became clear that Trump will not have a walkover. With 72 million pre-election day votes cast, it is certain that battleground states where Trump and Harris are locked in a tough fight will have an impact on final results.

One cannot downplay the significance of the 2024 presidential election for America and for the world, but it is certain that even if Trump wins, he will not be able to implement his election agenda featuring zero tolerance for illegal immigrants; a neutral stance on the Russia-Ukraine conflict; trade with China; and restoring the 'glory' of white America. People have experienced Trump's mode of governance in his first term and many still harbour bitter memories of his avowed racist mindset and exclusion of non-whites from key decision-making positions.

An exclusive mode of governance reflected in the policies of Trump during his presidential term served to polarise American society. Can the US afford to experience another cycle of race and social conflicts if Trump is re-elected and how would Trump be received by the world?

History will certainly be made on November 5 because of three main reasons, as follows:

First is the role of female and non-white voters whose tilt in favour of Harris is well known. The opportunity to elect Harris as the first female and non-white American President will certainly help transform the polarised American society. Hilary Clinton could have been the first female President of America, but she lost to Trump in 2016. She had the advantage of being both a female and a white, but even then she couldn't win the White House race. But Kamala will win the race if she succeeds in taking over battleground states. Currently, female American voters have tilted in favour of the Democratic party, a fact which Kamala is trying to capitalise on. Trump's sweeping remarks about women and the Republican party's conservative approach on issues like abortion and reproductive rights further galvanise support for Democrats. In that case, the only constituency that is standing firmly behind Trump is white males who logically fear the surge of non-white population if Trump loses the election. Knowing that it is their last chance to hold control over the instruments of power, Republicans will use all their resources and influence to win the November 2024 election.

Second, there is all the likelihood that history will be made in America if Trump again wins the presidential race. If there is massive voter turnout, particularly of women and non-white population, it will not go in Trump's favour. But Trump has been urging his voters not to sit at home and vote on the election day. Male voters are only 30% of the total American voters and all of them will not vote for Trump. That's why Trump is trying to woo Latino voters whose population in the recent past has swelled, but Kamala is also trying to get their support. From any standpoint, female, Latino, Asian and Afro-American voters will determine the fate of the November 2024 presidential and congressional elections. It is strange that Democrats are unable to control Florida which has large Latino and Cuban-origin population but the state firmly sides with Trump.

Third, the role of middle class Americans also matters in the election because of their size and influence in shaping election trends. So far Kamala has tried to seek support of middle class and blue collar Americans, arguing that her core policies would be to protect their economic interests by enhancing the tax rate on the rich and launch welfare programmes.

One can expect continuity and focus on inclusive mode of governance if the Democratic Party wins. The likelihood of the augmentation of race and societal polarisation along with a tilt in favour of Russia will cause split in NATO if the Republican Party wins – in what will be a dangerous scenario.

A heavy responsibility lies with the American public to cast their vote keeping in mind the ramifications that the election result will have both domestically and at the international level,.