Geopolitical cauldron

From Venezuela to Ukraine, power politics is dragging the world toward chaos

If anyone was thinking that global matters were improving in terms of peace or prosperity, it's time to take the shocker — humanity is creeping down moral decrepitude and extreme political instability, by the minute! The geopolitical cauldron is bubbling with wars, and international laws are broken every day!

The kidnapping of democratically elected, popular Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro by the US and detaining him in New York take us back to the sad memory of how Iraq's socialist leader Saddam Hussein was killed in a NATO-administered sham prosecution; and how the body of Muammar Gaddafi, the man who was running a truly welfare state in his country, was dragged in Libyan streets.

Waging unprovoked, unjust wars upon weaker states and toppling governments via political interference, colour revolutions, coups and even assassinations is a norm for the US. Maduro's kidnapping is just an addition to the list of America's illegal activities. Rather, it has laid bare the savage, hidden beneath the white skin, the three-piece suit and the false slogans of democracy and liberalism. It is clear now that the US is the super-rogue state of the world. But sadly, the other emerging powers also seem to be adding to the mess, not lessening it.

For those of us who fail to connect the dots between one conflict and the other and between one regime-change and another, sheer naivety will kill us all in the end. We are too naive to ascertain how big powers sell off the fate of humanity behind closed doors every now and then. And certainly, we were too naïve to think that the US, which declared the revival of the Monroe Doctrine last month, would already start acting as the fire-spitting dragon of the Western Hemisphere!

In the big picture, everywhere we look, we find deepening, unsolvable geopolitical quagmires. Let's make a mental map starting with Bashar al-Assad's sudden exit from Syria, where all indicators were pointing to his victory. To that, add the shaky peace deal that Hamas signed with Israel, after which the Jewish state has been emboldened to take its persecution and expulsion strategy to the next level, and after which the same Hamas that was being celebrated as heroes in the world community has become irrelevant with the stroke of a pen. Also, remember how the same Iran-backed militias, including Hezbollah, that were kicking Israel in the teeth, suddenly made a peace deal and went quiet. The average person must ask, is all the struggle and hardship that people face for their legitimate rights sold away every time? Is it a smokescreen behind which regional and global players settle their own scores — and the people are left abandoned every time?

Now map Ukraine against Russia and the Trade War against China. President Donald Trump had been hailing his 28-point peace plan that gave President Vladimir Putin much of what he wants. But after Venezuela, Trump has given a green light for a multinational force inside Ukraine, signalling a longer and bigger war. The same Trump who wanted to do business with Russia and China suddenly signed a $330 million fighter-jet deal with Taiwan. In return, China has immediately sanctioned 10 US defence companies, including Boeing and Northrop, freezing their assets in China. On the same date, the US Department of Defence published a report saying that America's vulnerability has increased due to China's humongous military buildup, including in its nuclear arsenal. The report predicted that China would seize Taiwan by 2027.

Venezuela and Russia had a Strategic Partnership Pact, and China had invested over $100 billion in its trade. It is surprising, then, how they both were unable to secure Maduro's safety. Are they incapable, or have they changed plans? Instead of long-term consistent planning, geopolitics seems to be moving on shifting soil, and world leaders seem to be working on a tit-for-tat mentality.

Now map this: Sudan's age-long ruler Omar al-Bashir was ousted via a colour revolution. Since then, for six years, Sudan has been in a civil war between two of al-Bashir's generals. Al-Burhan controls the state army, and Hemedti controls the RSF. Sudan was already broken into two countries in 2011; now, more balkanisation seems to be on the way. Nothing is going towards peace; the only difference is that what was thought to be a US-Israel project has been taken over by regional players.

And there is more balkanisation on the way. Somalia, which has become a pack of disunited, self-governing provinces, is being governed by a powerless US puppet in the capital, Mogadishu. The UN and the international community have failed in uniting them.

Last week, when Israel announced recognition of Somaliland as a separate independent state, everyone expressed concerns, and that was all. Allegedly, Somaliland has agreed to resettle Palestinians in Somaliland, give Israel a military base, and join the Abraham Accords. Guess what the future of the people of Somalia would look like, a people who had dreamt of a Greater Somalia for decades and who will now be breakaway bounties for external players. More is happening in the Middle East. Yemen had plunged into war again.

And things don't just stop here; already, there has been an attempt on Putin's life a week earlier. And after Venezuela, Trump is threatening actions on Colombia, Cuba, Mexico, Greenland and Iran. Because Colombia also runs drug cartels, because Iran is not giving up its nuclear programme, because the US needs Greenland for its security!

Are we looking towards the collapse of NATO, or are we looking towards a WWIII? Or, have the champions of the Global South sold away the Western Hemisphere in exchange for their own progress and development? Have the two poles made a deal undercutting humanity?

For those of us who were looking forward to a changing global order, a new financial, economic and security architecture; a new, just global governance; and for those who were thinking that research, technology, big data and global institutions must have replaced the bare savage inside men, with humane, rational, just beings. No, we are the same hunter-gatherers, trapped in the 'survival of the fittest' mode — grabbing for vested interests, conspiring, conniving, cheating, stealing and committing immorality at every level, in broad daylight every day!