US Election Day weather forecast: How conditions could impact turnout in key states

With Election Day approaching, weather conditions across the United States may affect in-person voter turnout, though forecasts suggest a mixed outlook in critical battleground states.

Montana is expected to experience the harshest weather conditions on Tuesday, with blizzard forecasts in parts of the state. However, as a Republican stronghold leaning towards Donald Trump, Montana is unlikely to impact the broader presidential race.

Key battleground states like Michigan and Wisconsin, on the other hand, could see rain showers, possibly affecting turnout in regions where voter enthusiasm and mobilisation are key factors.

Election Day Weather Forecasts for Key Battleground States

Arizona

Arizona is set to have largely dry weather, with temperatures in the 60s to low 70s in Phoenix, Tucson, and other areas. Cooler temperatures are expected in northern regions, with only light precipitation likely near the Utah border.

Georgia

In Georgia, temperatures will reach the mid-70s to 80s. Light rainfall may occur in the southwestern areas, while other parts of the state are expected to remain dry.

Michigan

Above-normal temperatures are forecast in Michigan, with southern areas, including Detroit, seeing highs in the upper 70s. Some thunderstorms may develop later in the day in lower Michigan. The Upper Peninsula will be cooler, with temperatures in the 50s and 60s and roughly 0.5 inches (1.3 centimetres) of rain expected.

Nevada

Nevada’s temperatures will be in the 60s, with Las Vegas approaching 70 degrees and Reno around the mid-50s. Morning temperatures in higher elevations could dip to the 20s, warming by the afternoon.

North Carolina

North Carolina will experience temperatures in the mid-70s to 80s, with a few showers expected in western areas, potentially affecting turnout.

Pennsylvania 

No rain is expected in Pennsylvania, with temperatures in the 70s and possibly nearing 80 in western areas such as Pittsburgh, likely supporting high voter turnout.

Wisconsin

Conditions in Wisconsin will be wet throughout Tuesday, with temperatures in the 60s across central and eastern areas. Near the Minnesota border, temperatures will hover around 45 to 50 degrees. The northern half of the state may receive about 0.5 inches (1.3 centimetres) of rain, while the southern half is expected to have lighter precipitation.

Weather Across the Country

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are anticipated in central US states, while blizzard conditions may impact western Montana. Snowfall is also forecast for regions in Idaho, eastern Washington, and Oregon. The Northeast, mid-Atlantic, and Southwest are expected to see calm weather, while breezy and dry conditions in California have raised fire concerns.

These forecasts are provided by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Weather Prediction Center and reflect expected conditions as Americans head to the polls.