Election guru Nate Silver calls 2024 race a ‘pure toss-up’ with Trump leading Harris

Election analyst Nate Silver called the 2024 White House race a “pure toss-up” Sunday, slightly favoring former President Donald Trump over Vice President Kamala Harris in his most recent forecast.

Silver’s model suggests Trump has a 51.5% likelihood of winning the Electoral College, while Harris stands at 48.1%, according to a Substack post he shared Sunday morning, reported by Mediaite.

“[New York Times] swing state polls good for Harris but not great. Morning Consult swing state polls good for Trump but not great,” Silver tweeted Sunday.

“It’s a pure toss-up.”

The Times/Siena College swing state survey indicates the two candidates are neck-and-neck in seven key battleground states, with Election Day just two days away.

In that poll, Harris holds narrow leads in Nevada, North Carolina, Georgia, and Wisconsin, while Trump shows a stronger lead in Arizona. The two are effectively tied in Michigan and Pennsylvania.

Morning Consult’s poll results reveal Trump with slight advantages in North Carolina, Georgia, and Wisconsin, with Arizona and Pennsylvania as tight races, reported by Forbes.

These new polls follow the Des Moines Register’s Saturday release of results from renowned pollster J. Ann Selzer, showing Harris leading Trump 47% to 44% in Iowa, a state traditionally leaning red.

Silver remarked that the Selzer poll “probably won’t matter” in the final presidential outcome. However, he noted that Harris supporters might find the result encouraging.

“I think Harris voters are reasonable in rejoicing over the Selzer survey,” Silver wrote, according to Mediaite.

“At the very least, it clinches the case that there will be plenty of numbers from high-quality pollsters in the final batch of polls that support a Harris victory — along with roughly as many that imply a Trump win.

“If Trump had ‘momentum’ in October, it has now petered out in November,” Silver added. “And we will very likely go into Tuesday night with the race being truly a toss-up, not leaning or tilting toward Trump.”