Pakistan’s Strategic Climate Agenda for COP29

Well, is it not convenient to blame the rest of the world for our troubles while we sit back and watch our glaciers melt? After all, it is much easier to point fingers than to admit that perhaps, just perhaps, our own governance has played a role in the mess we find ourselves in. Climate change, that spectre, has become the latest in a series of issues we love to parade, ignoring the fact that it is as much a result of global inaction as it is of our own neglect.

Climate change is not a future concern; it is already knocking on our doors, and quite rudely at that. More importantly, it is here to stay, affecting not only our lives but those of future generations. It is akin to a chronic health condition—not a fleeting ailment we can cure with a dose of denial, but a persistent issue we must learn to live with and manage successfully. Yet, instead of adapting and finding ways to thrive within its parameters, we often find solace in playing the victim, bemoaning our fate while doing little to change it.

Let us take a hard look at Pakistan’s situation. In the 21st century, our temperature has already risen by 0.6 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels. Projections indicate that we will be significantly affected by climate change, with an expected increase in average temperature by at least another degree. While the northern areas might experience a slightly milder increase, the overall impact includes more frequent and severe floods, droughts, and rising sea levels. Our agricultural sector, the backbone of our economy, is at risk of declines up to 10% in wheat and 20% in rice yields by the end of the century.

One would think that such alarming statistics would push us into action. Instead, our policies on climate change have been, to put it mildly, lacklustre. There has been a consistent pattern of neglect, even hostility, towards critical issues like education, health, population management, and now, climate change. Our conscious policymaking on climate change has been little more than a joke, lacking depth and coherence. An unstated objective seems to revolve around securing funds from the West—a pursuit that has seen limited success. Meanwhile, unconscious policy implementations, such as renewable energy projects and infrastructure development, have shown some progress, but without an explicit strategy or perception.

It is time we stopped waiting for handouts and started taking responsibility. Climate change is a governance issue, and it is high time we treated it as such. We need to set clear, strategic goals to address it effectively at COP 29. Firstly, we must prioritise saving lives, protecting property, safeguarding agriculture, and ensuring food security. These are not just lofty ideals; they are necessities for our survival and prosperity.

Strengthening disaster preparedness and early warning systems is essential. Pakistan ranks eighth in the Global Climate Risk Index by Germanwatch, reflecting our high vulnerability to extreme weather events. The devastating floods of 2022, which affected over 33 million people and caused economic losses exceeding $30 billion, are a stark reminder of what inaction costs us. Investing in robust early warning systems and disaster response mechanisms is not just prudent; it is imperative. The United Nations estimates that effective early warning systems can provide a tenfold return on investment—a bargain by any measure.

Secondly, we must commit to achieving a significant shift in our energy mix. Currently, thermal power constitutes about 64% of Pakistan’s electricity generation, with a heavy reliance on fossil fuel imports. This is neither sustainable nor economically viable in the long term. We have abundant renewable resources at our disposal—an estimated potential of 50,000 MW from wind and 2.9 million MW from solar energy. By committing to achieving 60% renewable energy in our energy mix by 2030, we can reduce our dependence on fossil fuels, decrease greenhouse gas emissions, and create green jobs.

Thirdly, implementing large-scale reforestation is crucial. Forests cover only about 5% of Pakistan’s land area, one of the lowest percentages in the region. The successful Billion Tree Tsunami in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province demonstrates that large-scale reforestation is not just possible but highly effective. Increasing our forest cover is vital for carbon sequestration, combating soil erosion, and preserving biodiversity.

Enhancing water resource management is another critical area. Per capita water availability has plummeted from 5,260 cubic metres in 1951 to around 908 cubic metres in 2021. Agriculture consumes about 90% of our available water, with traditional irrigation methods leading to significant wastage. Climate change exacerbates water scarcity, threatening long-term water supplies from rapidly melting glaciers. Efficient water management practices must be adopted urgently to combat this impending crisis.

Finally, adopting climate-smart agriculture is essential to ensure food security. Climate change could reduce major crop yields by up to 8–10% by 2040 due to increased temperatures and altered precipitation patterns. Implementing practices such as efficient irrigation, drought-resistant crops, and optimised fertiliser use can increase resilience and productivity, safeguarding our agricultural sector against climate impacts.

But perhaps most importantly, we need to shift our mindset. We must stop viewing ourselves solely as victims of climate change and start recognising our role in combating it. This means honouring our international commitments and actively participating in global cooperation. By meeting our obligations, we contribute to collective efforts to combat climate change and stand to benefit from shared knowledge and resources. Waiting for funds from the West is neither a strategy nor a solution. We must adopt a strategic, self-reliant approach to climate change, integrating climate considerations into all aspects of planning and development. This involves aligning our policies with national interests and global solutions, ensuring that actions taken today contribute to a sustainable and secure future.

Climate change is a chronic challenge that demands immediate and thoughtful action. It is a threat multiplier that intensifies existing issues, making it essential for us to confront it intelligently. As we approach COP29, Pakistan’s standpoint should emphasise proactive measures that protect our people, economy, and environment. By implementing a focused agenda and adopting a strategic approach, we can address the challenges of climate change and secure a prosperous future for generations to come. After all, playing the victim card might get us sympathy, but it will not save our crops, protect our homes, or secure our future. It is time we rolled up our sleeves and got to work—because climate change is not waiting for us to get our act together.

The writer is an Economist based in Islamabad. For insights and updates, follow on Twitter: @SalmanAneel or reach out via email at aneelsalman@gmail.com