Bulgaria heads to polls in yet another snap election

Bulgarians cast their votes on October 27 in the country's seventh snap election since 2020.

Despite years of political turnover and recent reforms, analysts predict this election is unlikely to resolve the ongoing political impasse, with no party expected to secure a majority in parliament.

The center-right GERB party, led by former Prime Minister Boyko Borissov, currently leads in the polls with 26.1% of projected support, according to a recent Gallup International Balkans survey.

Trailing GERB are the reformist PP at 16.2% and the pro-Russian Revival party with 14.9%, reflecting an increasingly fragmented political landscape in Bulgaria.

Since 2020, Bulgaria has faced political instability stemming from anti-corruption protests that dissolved a long-standing coalition led by GERB.

This movement ignited a series of rapid elections, with successive governments failing to establish long-term stability or tackle issues crucial to the nation’s progress. Consequently, political rivalries have become deeply entrenched, complicating coalition-building efforts and weakening the government's ability to introduce sustained reforms.

Bulgaria’s political turbulence is also affecting the country's relationship with the European Union. As the EU’s poorest member state, Bulgaria is heavily reliant on EU funding to improve its infrastructure and economy.

However, the prolonged stalemate has delayed Bulgaria’s adoption of the euro, originally planned for early 2025, due to missed inflation targets and lack of cohesive governance.

The delay has left the country unable to tap fully into economic support mechanisms tied to eurozone membership.

Local citizens express low expectations for political change. "I don’t think they will form a government," said Marin Kushev, a resident of Sofia. "I don’t believe them."

Others share similar views, noting how the instability has led many young professionals to seek opportunities abroad.

"I want a stable government so that I can come back," shared Raina Stancheva, a Bulgarian citizen currently living in the United Kingdom.

Analysts from Teneo, a political risk consultancy, caution that Bulgaria's continuous political turmoil could foster disillusionment with mainstream parties, potentially pushing voters towards populist and pro-Russian platforms.

The consequences of this shift could affect Bulgaria’s geopolitical stance within the EU, especially as pro-Russian sentiment rises among nationalist parties.

If coalition talks remain inconclusive following this election, Bulgaria will continue grappling with an uncertain future and missed opportunities for economic growth and integration with Europe.