Georgian Dream's win sparks fears over European integration

Bidzina Ivanishvili, Georgia's most influential figure and the founder of the ruling Georgian Dream party, won a parliamentary election, early results indicated. However, opposition leaders contested the outcome, alleging "falsification."

The election, framed by both the Georgian Dream and opposition parties as pivotal for the country’s future alignment with either Western nations or Russia amid the Ukraine conflict, was seen as a significant moment in determining Georgia's political direction. Early official results, with 70% of precincts counted, showed Georgian Dream securing 53% of the vote, though these figures did not include votes cast by Georgians abroad.

Opposition parties dismissed the outcome at a news conference early Sunday, pledging not to accept the results. Nika Gvaramia, leader of the Coalition for Change, referred to the election as a "constitutional coup," while United National Movement leader Tina Bokuchava rejected the results as falsified, emphasising Georgians’ desire for a European future. "We Vote," a coalition of electoral observers, also questioned the integrity of the results, citing incidents of voter intimidation and vote-buying and calling for the results to be annulled.

Exit polls further highlighted divisions, with a Georgian Dream-aligned broadcaster projecting 56% support for the ruling party, while pro-opposition channels indicated strong opposition gains.

Ivanishvili, a billionaire and former Prime Minister, celebrated his party's victory, commending the Georgian people's resilience. He noted that Georgian Dream had retained rural support, achieving as much as 90% of votes in some areas, despite losing ground to opposition in parts of Tbilisi, the capital. Although some election monitors reported irregularities, an alternative tally from an opposition party indicated Georgian Dream's likely majority.

Ivanishvili, who amassed wealth in Russia during the 1990s, entered politics in 2012 advocating a pro-Western approach tempered with pragmatism toward Russia. However, his stance towards the West has since cooled, accusing a "Global War Party" of pushing Georgia towards conflict with Russia, though he maintains that EU accession remains Georgia's goal.

If confirmed, the victory would challenge the EU's efforts to draw ex-Soviet states into its sphere of influence. In contrast, Russia has openly backed Georgian Dream, accusing the West of meddling in Georgian politics.

In the lead-up to the election, Georgian President Salome Zourabichvili, who had once aligned with Georgian Dream but is now a vocal critic, and local election monitors alleged widespread vote-buying and other electoral abuses. The International Society for Fair Elections and Democracy (ISFED) reported various irregularities, including video footage of ballot-stuffing in Marneuli, resulting in the invalidation of some votes. Giorgi Kalandarishvili, head of the electoral commission, upheld the election as peaceful and compliant with international standards.

Some Georgians expressed disillusionment over the results. Georgia, once one of the most pro-Western states following the Soviet Union’s collapse, has seen a sharp decline in relations with the West since Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine, marked by Tbilisi's refusal to impose sanctions on Moscow and Georgian Dream’s increasingly pro-Russian rhetoric.

Despite Western allies criticising Georgian Dream for authoritarian tendencies, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban congratulated the party on its success. The ruling party had campaigned on maintaining peace by staying out of the Ukraine conflict, with campaign materials contrasting Georgian cities' stability with Ukrainian devastation. Georgian Dream supporter Sandro Dvalishvili expressed apprehension about opposition victory, stating that peace and stability would be jeopardised if his party were defeated.