ADB sees population rising to 400m by 2050

The Asian Development Bank (ADB) expressed concern on Monday about the rapid population growth in Pakistan, warning that the country's population may surpass 400 million by 2050 which could exacerbate problems such as substandard living conditions, disruption of city functions, and environmental degradation.

In its Pakistan National Urban Assessment Report, the ADB highlighted that Pakistan was among the eight countries expected to account for more than half of the world's population increase by 2050.

The report warned that Pakistan's cities, already grappling with significant infrastructure deficits, would face mounting pressure as the urban population was expected to reach 99.4 million - 40.7% of the total population—by 2030.

The rapid growth of urban areas, often unregulated and non-compliant with planning or building codes, has led to substandard living conditions, disruption of city functions, and environmental degradation. Additionally, the expansion of urban areas into agricultural land threatens the country's future food security.

The report emphasised the need for stronger policy, planning, and investment to transform Pakistan's cities into safe, resilient, and liveable environments, with improved livelihood opportunities. It also noted that Pakistan's rapid urbanisation was occurring amid economic uncertainty.

"By the end of the 2022 fiscal year, the country faced a widening trade and fiscal deficit, double-digit inflation due to a depreciating rupee, and a severe shortage of foreign reserves. This was compounded by significant flood damage and economic instability in 2023, resulting in the highest inflation rate in five decades and a sharp decline in GDP," the report said.

The report stressed the importance of implementing an economic growth adjustment programme to restore macroeconomic stability and foster sustainable economic growth. It also drew attention to issues affecting urban centres, which urgently required attention to meet the demands of their expanding populations.

"Pakistan's urbanisation has concentrated populations in the largest cities, with provincial capitals holding a disproportionately large share," Emma Xiaoqin Fan, the ADB country director for Pakistan, said during the report's launch event.

"This places immense pressure on the government to provide basic urban services such as water, sewerage, transport, housing, healthcare, and education," he added, affirming that the ADB would continue to support a balanced urbanisation through development of climate-resilient infrastructure, aimed at improving the quality of municipal services in smaller cities.

The report provided several key recommendations to addressing Pakistan's urban challenges and suggested short-, medium-, and long-term goals. It called for adopting a holistic and sustainable approach, with sustainability as the primary driver of decision-making.