Trump's resilience to seek power again

The American political history will be rewritten, on November 5, 2024, if Donald Trump - a former president twice impeached by the House of Representatives and again contesting the presidential election after conceding defeat in the 2020 vote - manages to reach the White House. Despite several cases pending against him, Trump has been able to continue his election campaign with a resolve to 'Make America Great Again'.

Trump called the 2020 vote 'fraud' and 'rigged, and his supporters attacked the Capitol Hill on January 6, 2021 in an attempt to disrupt the official announcement of the presidential election results - something that Trumps opponent describe as 'insurrection'.

There are few examples in the American history in which a candidate who lost the presidential election decided to contest again. After the 2020 vote, analysts had predicted that Trump was not a dead horse and would fight back with full force.

Trump reflects an ideology propagated by white supremacists to ensure the tutelage of white Americans in the US power dynamics in view of the surge of non-white population. In a write-up in The Guardian, on January 5, 2024 entitled "Storm Trump is brewing - and the whole world needs to brace itself" Jonathan Fredland argues, "Much can change between now and then: once voters' minds are concentrated on the looming prospect of a Trump return, many might recoil. All the same, Americans need to prepare themselves now for a second Trump presidency - and so does the rest of the world. Not for nothing is there serious concern in the US that January 2025 could open a new chapter of US authoritarianism, even an American dictatorship - with Trump bent on filling the judiciary and the upper reaches of the military with those whose first loyalty will be not to the US constitution but to him."

Trump was perhaps the first president in the recent American history that was not part of 'deep state'. He resented how deep state - composed of military and intelligence high-ups - interfered in his policies. It is understood that if re-elected, he will go an extra mile in neutralising the influence of deep state.

American election results will have far reaching ramifications not only in the US but in the whole world. When Democratic Party faces issues like Biden's unabated support for Israel's brutalities in Gaza, one can expect Arab-Muslim voters to vote for neither Kamala Harris nor Trump. Perhaps, in order to neutralise its huge tilt in favour of Israel during the Gaza war, the Biden administration came up with a warning to Israel that it should improve humanitarian situation in Gaza or face suspension of American military assistance. A letter jointly written by the US Secretaries of State and Defense to the Israeli government is an exception to the avowed support rendered by Washington for the relentless use of force against unarmed Palestinians since the outbreak of the war in Gaza on October 7 last year. To what extent this letter will have an impact on Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is yet to be seen, but it is a symbolic and veiled attempt to placate Arab-Muslim American voters and to lure them back in the Democratic Party fold.

Knowing the track record of the Trump administration in augmenting racial polarisation and promoting anti-immigrant and anti-Muslim rhetoric, it will be interesting to see that if re-elected how different Trump will be as regards dealing with issues which made him highly unpopular. Furthermore, in the realms of foreign policy, Trump's anti-NATO stance and pro-Putin tilt, which was evident in his first term as president, may not be repeated because of seriously adverse implications. Unlike the Biden administration which stands behind Ukraine and supports NATO, any deviation from the established patterns would cost Trump his international standing. Exit polls and public perceptions on the election campaign predict neck to neck fight between Kamala and Trump. Both candidates now focus on swing states like Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, North Carolina, Georgia, Michigan, Arizona and Nevada. Out of the 50 states, Republican Party has a history of capturing the states composed of 'bible belt'. However, in states with large electoral votes like California, New York and Illinois, Democratic Party enjoys a safe vote bank. Out of 538 electoral votes, the winning candidate must secure 270. In the 2000 presidential vote, initially Democratic Party candidate Al Gore had won, but he lost to the Republican Party candidate George W Bush when he failed to win in Florida.

The crucial American presidential election of 2024 needs to be examined from three angles.

First is the weightage of Hispanic and Afro-American voters. Both Trump and Kamala are trying to lure the two communities. Kamala is playing her Asian and African card and arguing that Trump is highly insensitive to ethnic minorities. It is yet to be seen to what extent Kamala, as a female candidate like Hilary Clinton, has been able to influence women voters. To count Kamala's chances, Americans have never sent a female candidate to the White House. As for a non-white president, Barack Obama was of mixed race and not purely an Afro-American. Ethnic and gender issues will matter in the 2024 vote - something that Trump is trying to deal with. Trump's vote bank is primarily composed of white American males who are concerned about the transformation of America from a white-dominated country hundred years ago to one with the surging non-white population, challenging their supremacy in the power dynamics.

Second, Kamala blames Trump for helping the privileged classes through tax cuts and anti-welfare measures like reducing funding for social security safety net namely Medicare. Unfortunately, neither Trump nor Kamala focuses on how they would be dealing with the huge American debt of 33 trillion dollars, which is over 120 per cent of its GDP. Inflation, unemployment and price hike do matter, but have so far failed to figure in the election campaign by both the Democratic and Republican candidates.

Third, despite the marginal edge that Kamala enjoys over Trump, there is a likelihood of the former president succeeding in again reaching the White House. Trump has appealed to American voters to show up on the polling day, insisting that it is the last opportunity to save America from being taken over by non-whites. If Arab-Muslim voters decide not to cast their vote in protest against Biden's relentless support to Netanyahu's brutalities in Gaza, it will have a negative impact on Kamala's chances. She is now carrying the baggage of Biden's support to the Jewish state. In order to placate Arab-Muslim voters, a 30-day notice was given by the US Secretaries of State and Defense for Israel to improve the humanitarian situation in Gaza or face suspension of American military assistance. Needless to say, the coming two weeks will shape the mindset of American voters on whether to support Kamala or Trump or stay neutral.