Trouble if Trump returns

With 2024 ebbing away in its final quarter, you would think that Hollywood censorship is a thing of the past. However, things look a little different if you are the man behind the film that depicts the potentially future US president as a lecherous, liposuction-loving, drug-abusing gambler, as 'Apprentice' director Ali Abbasi nearly discovered to his cost. Does a potential Trump comeback have the power to mould Hollywood?

'The Apprentice': a

near miss

As revealed in a special Variety feature, Abbasi didn't initially think the presidential race would have any impact on his film, despite its subject matter not portraying Trump in the most flattering of terms. The biopic, which took six years to come to fruition, explores the contentious presidential candidate's early years as a real estate developer. The offering received an eight-minute standing ovation at the Cannes Film Festival in May. Confident that picking up distribution for the film would be easy, Abbasi discovered quite the opposite. Convinced that he would be able to strike a deal with Netflix for distribution, or even a prominent independent studio, Abbasi found no takers at all for his film.

According to the publication, the implications are clear: if Trump has a potential seat in the White House, major studios, indie labels and streamers, or at least their corporate parents, cannot risk alienating him. Eventually, Apprentice producers had no choice but to sign a deal with Briarcliff Entertainment, a tiny distribution company that has handled politically charged fare such as The Dissident, a 2020 documentary about the murder of Jamal Khashoggi. That particular documentary was also a production most media outlets were unwilling to touch, until Briarcliff took over. The Apprentice eventually opened in theatres on October 11, one month before its subject matter could potentially regain his presidential title. Whilst Abbasi is relieved his film found a home, the experience has left him shaken.

"I spent the summer clinically depressed and thinking, 'We did all this work, and nobody is ever going to see our film,'" he admits. "The big story for me is how one human being is intimidating the 300 million or so people who live in America. How can an entire country let that happen?"

Abbasi is under no illusion as to the magnitude of Trump's influence - at least not anymore - but that does not mean that he can accept how far it can stretch. "I get it," he says. "This guy can become the next president, and he will have all these tools at his disposal, which he's shown a willingness to use. So he can come after you with all these regulations and taxes. But it still upsets me."

A financial gain for Hollywood

Abbasi's experience is a symptom of the pressures the entertainment industy is under as the contentious United States presidential race unfolds. According to experts, Trump's return to power and the subsequent deepening polarisation of an already divided country could signal trouble for Hollywood.

"There's a lot of nervousness," says Schuyler M. Moore, a partner at Greenberg Glusker, who practices entertainment, corporate and tax law. "They don't know exactly what he would do if he got back in power."

With actors, writers and directors leaning to the left and openly endorsing Trump's rival and Democratic candidate Kamala Harris, the fear is palpable. "Everything's at stake," says Sarah Paulson, the Emmy- and Tony-winning actress and a Harris supporter. "Democracy is on the ballot."

However, whilst artists' personal loyalties may lie with Harris, there is no denying that a second Trump term would mean a financial boon for Hollywood. With Trump in office, the debt-ridden entertainment industry is likely to enjoy lower taxes. Variety reports that in 2017, Trump signed a massive tax cut, lowering corporate rates from 35 per cent to 21 per cent. The bill included benefits that were especially helpful to Hollywood, including a lowered rate on overseas income and the ability to immediately write off the full cost of film and TV productions. Disney and Comcast each saved more than $6 billion in the following four years, according to the Institute on Taxation and Economic Policy.

If elected to a second term, Trump promised to cut corporate tax to 15 per cent for companies that make their products in the US. However ardently Hollywood artists support Harris, the Democratic nominee has announced that she will hike the tax rate to 28 per cent and increase the tax on overseas income.

In addition to dangling a financial carrot before the media industry, Trump has also wielded the proverbial stick. In the last month, he has threatened to pull the broadcast licenses of CBS and Disney's ABC over their coverage, and he is currently suing ABC. He has threatened to investigate Comcast for treason. Looking ahead, Trump has pledged to use his office to prosecute opponents. Since many media conglomerates operate news divisions and produce late-night shows that criticise Trump, they may very well be in the firing line if he assumes office.

In short, Abbasi's Apprentice experience is a mere snapshot of what lies ahead for Hollywood in the coming years. Are the promises of tax cuts that may save a debt-ridden entertainment industry worth it if censorship is the ultimate outcome? Until next month, experts can only wait and see.