Anybody's game
It is becoming increasingly clear that the upcoming US presidential election is going to be a closely fought battle. While Vice President Kamala Harris remains ahead in almost all polls and is actually improving her standing in swing states, former president Donald Trump's standing has been improving in some nationwide polls, leading many pundits to predict that we are in for one of the narrowest electoral college result in history.
A recent 'poll of polls' suggests Harris will win 276 electoral college votes, compared to 262 for Trump. For comparison, the closest election ever was in 2000, when a US Supreme Court decision paved the way for the presidency of George W Bush. The court blocked recounts in Florida, allowing Bush to win the state by barely 500 votes, and the election by a margin of 271 electoral college votes to 266. But in a sign of the increasing polarisation of American politics, where Bush lost the popular vote by just 543,895, or 0.52% of the vote, Harris is expected to have a margin of victory numbering several million in the popular vote column.
Trump's recent surge has been tough to explain, especially after a poor debate performance and incomprehensible speeches that raised further questions about his age and mental competence. He has also refused to participate in another debate or even be interviewed by any media outlets he perceives as being unfriendly, becoming the first candidate in modern history to turn down an interview with the famous newsmagazine programme '60 Minutes'.
However, polling shows many Americans still trust him more on the economy, while his falsification of crime statistics and lies about illegal immigrants have kept his uninformed base motivated. It is also worth noting that polling has not yet accounted for the recent hurricanes, which have hit many Republican-leaning districts in swing states. A good government response, coupled with Republican criticism of Trump's disinformation efforts to weaponise the disaster, could affect enough voters to sway the election.