16% water shortage for Rabi estimated

ISLAMABAD:

The Indus River System Authority (Irsa) Advisory Committee approved an anticipated water shortage of 16% for Punjab and Sindh during the Rabi season 2024-25, while estimating a 22 million acre feet (MAF) inflow at the rim stations, a spokesperson said on Wednesday.

The Irsa Advisory Committee (IAC) met here with Irsa Chairman and Member Balochistan Abdul Hameed Mengal in the chair. The meeting was attended by Irsa members, officials of the Water and Power Development Authority (Wapda), and provincial irrigation departments.

The meeting approved the anticipated water availability criteria for the Rabi season (from October 1, 2024 to March 31, 2025). It estimated rim stations' inflow at 22 MAF and the availability storage at 9.58 MAF. The system losses would be 1.36 MAF and the releases down Kotri would be 0.07 MAF.

IRSA spokesman Khalid Rana said that the possible availability at the canal heads for Rabi season was 31.14 MAF – less than the anticipated 31.66 MAF last year, adding that the IAC approved basin-wise shortage of 16% for Punjab and Sindh.

The spokesperson said that Punjab would get 16.68 MAF water for the Rabi season, Sindh to take 12.65 MAF, Balochistan to be provided 1.17 MAF, while Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa (K-P) to get 700,000 MAF water for the next six months.

The committee also reviewed the Kharif 2024 system operations (April-September) and observed that the actual rim stations' inflows of 105.84 MAF till September 30 were 1% more than the maximum forecast volume of 104.60 MAF and 7% more than the 10-year average of 99.34 MAF.

The overall provincial canal withdrawals were 19% less than their shares. "Indented supplies as per Para 2 shares were released to the provinces as per Irsa decision on May 13, 2024. Less utilisation by provinces from August 1 to September 20, 2024 was due to heavy rainfall and flooding," he said.

"The actual system losses were 11.9 MAF as compared to maximum anticipation of 14.8 MAF," the spokesperson added "The committee was informed that downstream Kotri releases were 21.52 MAF," the spokesperson said.

The committee was also informed that due to better inflows and efficient regulation of available supplies, the storage volume available for transfer to Rabi 2024-25 was 10.577 MAF which was 6% more than the 10-year average and about 9% less than last year.

The IAC discussed the recommendations of the Irsa Technical Committee (ITC) and approved the likely anticipated water availability of 21.98 MAF for Rabi 2024-25 at the four rim stations, which was around 15% more than the previous year and also about 1% more than the 10-year average.

"The likely availability of 31.14 MAF at the canal heads is about 2% higher than last year's actual availability of 30.59 MAF and 6% higher than the 10-year average of 29.24 MAF," the Irsa spokesperson said.

The IAC also allowed the provinces indented supplies for the maturity of Kharif Crops and sowing of Rabi Crops during the month of October 2024, which would later be adjusted towards the overall provincial shares for Rabi 2024-25.

The IAC was informed that the forecast and anticipated system operation was conducted by utilising the Water Apportionment Accord (WAA) Tool. The meeting approved the Chashma Barrage closure for 20 days on the request from the Water and Power Development Authority (Wapda).

The closure could be extendable for five days subject to annual canal closures – from December26, 2024 to January14, 2024. During the closure, Chashma reservoir outflow would be constrained between 15,000 and 30,000 cusecs.

On Wapda's request for raising the Mangla reservoir's minimum operating level from the present 1,050 feet to 1,070 feet based on the latest Bathymetric Survey-2024, the dam authorities were directed to put up the matter in the forum's next meeting in the 1st of week of next month.

During the meeting, the spokesperson said, Wapda representatives gave a detailed briefing regarding the Tunnel 5 HPP of Tarbela and assured that the work would be completed during the approved closure period of 33 months.

Regarding the operation of T4-LOO, Wapda informed that the outflow structure would be inspected in November for any necessary repairs. They hoped that the structure would be available for operation during Kharif 2025 after completion of remaining works in March 2025.

The Wapda representatives were optimistic that the Tarbela Auxiliary Spillways would be operable in high-flow period of Kharif 2025. The IAC, however, expressed concern over the overlapping of T3/T4 and T5 works and the lagging physical progress of T5 works.

The IAC asked Wapda to provide a firm assurance and contingency plans through the WAPDA chairman about completing the T5 work within the approved period of 33 months in the next meeting of the committee.