Hurricane tracker: Tropical storm may form in Gulf of Mexico, warns US' NHS

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) is currently tracking a weather system in the Gulf of Mexico that could potentially strengthen into a tropical storm in the coming days.

In an advisory issued early Monday morning, the NHC identified the system as Invest 97L, which is producing showers and thunderstorms. These weather patterns "are beginning to show signs of organisation with a broad area of low pressure" over the northwestern Caribbean Sea, according to the centre. Should the system develop into a storm, it will be named Helene.

The NHC has noted that environmental conditions are conducive to further development, stating that a "tropical depression or storm is likely to form over the next couple of days" as the system moves northward across the northwestern Caribbean and into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico.

"Regardless of development, this system is expected to produce heavy rains over portions of Central America during the next several days," the NHC highlighted in its advisory. It also urged residents in the northwestern Caribbean, the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico, and western Cuba to monitor the system's progress closely.

The system is forecast to move northward across the eastern Gulf of Mexico, and the NHC advised that people along the northeastern Gulf Coast should remain vigilant as the situation develops.

Threat level: With record-high Gulf waters and minimal obstacles, the storm has the potential to intensify into a significant hurricane before reaching the northern Gulf Coast.

Landfall prediction: Forecast data on Monday morning indicates that the most likely landfall area is along the Florida Panhandle, expected on Thursday.

Broader impact: A larger region could experience high winds, storm surge flooding, and heavy rains. This area is likely to include the west coast of Florida, Georgia, Mississippi, and Alabama, with track details becoming clearer once the storm's centre forms on Monday or Tuesday.

Big picture: The Atlantic hurricane season was expected to be exceptionally active due to record-warm ocean temperatures and the development of a La Niña event in the tropical Pacific. However, other factors have temporarily reduced storm activity at times.