INDUS DELTA'S DOWNSTREAM DILEMMA
Wadero Muhammad Dhandhal owns over 250 acres of agricultural land in Shafi Dhandhal village, located in the coastal Tehsil Jati of Sujawal. Despite his efforts to sell the land for Rs 500 per acre for a long time, he has been unable to find a buyer. "About five years ago, I leased my land to a local man for a five-year period, but he returned it to me within the first six months due to incurring losses."
"Who wants to incur losses?” he laments. “I tried to sell the land and went to great lengths to find a buyer, making announcements in Jati and nearby cities, publishing and distributing pamphlets, and doing everything possible. However, the land has become unproductive due to sea intrusion, making it unsellable. As a result, I'm now forced to work as a daily labourer in Jati."
According to a 15-month research study conducted by the US-Pakistan Centre for Advanced Studies in Water (USPCAS-W), it has been revealed that the Indus delta has shrunk by 92 percent from 12,900 square km in 1833 to merely 1,000 sq-km. Once renowned for its 17 creeks, the delta now has only two active creeks, which are also rapidly diminishing into the sea.
The research further investigated how sea intrusion affects the local population, uncovering that a staggering 76 percent of residents depend on underground water for their daily needs. Alarmingly, this water has turned brackish and saline across a vast 88 percent of the delta's area, posing significant health risks to the community.
Nadeem Mirbahar, expert IUCN Commission on Ecosystem Management believes that the entire ecosystem of once thriving Indus Delta is breathing its last due to reduction in river water flow caused by construction of dams and structures upstream. “This has led to increased salinity, groundwater depletion and collapse of fisheries, agriculture and mangrove ecosystem. The resulting environmental decline has forced local communities to migrate as seawater encroaches on agricultural lands and economic conditions worsen.”
The coastal villages of district Sujawal are worst affected by the water scarcity in local canals which somehow have contributed in increasing sea intrusion as these canals used to provide freshwater to local water bodies including many lakes and finally tailed in seawater carrying silt and other useful particles that pushed the seawater back but most of such water carrying distributaries have been waterless for a long time.
Noor Muhammad Thehmore, the District Sujawal President of the Pakistan Fisherfolk Forum, believes that the scarcity of freshwater in the delta downstream of Kotri is a major issue. However, that the non-availability of freshwater in local canals is a significant problem, which has contributed to the rapid increase in sea intrusion in this coastal region.
"The Pinyari Minor, a vital water distributary that supplies water to Sujawal, remains dry for most of the year,” he also points out. “Even in July and August, when floodwaters are being released, it still lacks water. This distributary further branches into four smaller sub-distributaries, with Sher Khana Minor being the primary source of irrigation for most coastal villages. However, despite having a total of 60 RDs (revenue divisions), water only reaches the initial 20 RDs, leaving the rest waterless for over two years."
Ameer Bux Jat laments the same issue and according to him, the fresh water has become a unique thing in entire Kharochhan tehsil and consequently the people even for cleansing of dead bodies use seawater. “Kanto, Ratoal and Khaarwah distributaries provide water to Shahbanadar while Maatki shakh provides water to Kharochhan area and unfortunately all are dry even in this monsoon period when all the floodwater of upward is sent to downward,” he says.
Migration dilemma and Sea intrusion
Regarding the losses due to sea intrusion, Noor Muhammad reveals that they are incalculable, and the figures recorded in government documents are only partially accurate. "According to the government record its 2.3 million acres of land that has been intruded by sea but on ground it’s over 5 million acres. Over 25 freshwater lakes have been submerged including Ram-listed Jhabo Lake, more than 100 villages have vanished, and 4-5 families from every existing village have migrated. Four Dehs (sub-union councils) have been completely, and nine partially, eroded by the sea. Moreover, there have been immense losses in agriculture, fisheries, livestock, and other sectors, which continue to occur. Yet, plans are still being made to build more dams and canals upstream?"
Ameer Bux Jat, President of the Coastal Community Development Organisation (CCDO), a local community organisation in Kharochhan Tehsil, shares alarming revelations. According to him, out of the total 32 Dehs (sub-union councils) in Tehsil Kharochhan, 18 Dehs have become no man's land which is more than 50 percent, as they are uninhabited and completely eroded by the sea. "The population of Tehsil Kharochhan has drastically decreased, from 26,666 in the 1998 census to only 15,000 in the 2023 census," he says. "People from over 200 villages have been forced to resettle in other areas due to the devastating effects of sea intrusion. As the flow of the mighty Indus River has decreased, the calamities in the delta region have increased."
According to a report ‘Indication of Subsurface Seawater Intrusion’ published in 2023, the 88 percent of the Indus Delta is effected by subsurface sea intrusion and reduction of freshwater flow into delta downstream Kotri is the major factor for such a happening.”
As per another report of US-Pakistan Center for Advanced Studies in Water published in 2018 ‘Assessing Impacts of Seawater Intrusion on soil, water and environment on Indus Delta’, 42607 hectares land of Indus Delta is degraded due to surface sea water intrusion and out of total degraded land of 42607, 31656 ha land is now under the sea water while 10951 ha new land is converted into the tidal floodplain area.
Hydro-politics in Pakistan
According to irrigation expert and author Obhayo Khushak, who wrote 'Hydro-politics in Pakistan', the Indus delta is no longer considered a delta due to its drastic degradation. Once the world's fifth-largest delta and a thriving region of Pakistan, it has lost its former glory. Before 1947, Kharochhan, Sookhi Bandar, and Keti Bandar were bustling hubs of maritime trade. In fact, in 1947, the KT Bandar municipal committee lent a substantial amount of RS 100,000 to the Karachi municipal committee, indicative of the area's prosperity. However, today, Sookhi Bandar and KT Bandar have been consumed by the sea, and Kharochhan is a small village on the verge of being eroded by the sea.
Khushak argues that the true cost of hydro-politics in Pakistan has been borne by the communities living along the Indus Delta. He points out the hypocrisy in Pakistan's stance, saying, 'While Pakistan accuses India of building dams on the Indus River, which restricts water flow, no one questions why Punjab is also building dams, blocking Sindh's water share, and devastating the delta. If the demand for water is legitimate, why is Punjab's actions not held to the same scrutiny?
“The federal government is presently pursuing five hydropower projects on the Indus River under the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). In a surprising move, WAPDA proposed a plan in August 2023 to irrigate 34 lakh acres of land in the Cholistan desert, out of a total of 60 lakh acres. Building on this proposal, the Punjab government sought permission from IRSA in June this year to irrigate 6 lakh acres in a pilot phase.” Khushak contends that these projects would be the final blow to the livelihoods of communities living in the Indus Delta, ultimately sealing their fate
The IRSA Act and the role of Sindh's representative in IRSA, he explains, were initially established to ensure provinces complied with the Water Apportionment Act 1991. However, IRSA's role has become increasingly contentious as it has begun to interfere in other provincial water matters. Notably, IRSA has consistently failed to speak out when Sindh's rightful share of water is reduced. The Sindh representative is bound to follow their government's directives, which are often influenced by the federal government or Punjab's majority, resulting in a lack of resistance or opposition.
Mangroves to save delta
Growing mangrove forest cover from time to time along the coastline of Sindh is what the only solace Sindh government has been provided to the coastal districts of Sindh i.e. Karachi, Thatta and Sujawal. The Range Forest Officer Sujawal & Thatta, Muhammad Khan Jamali is hopeful that the mangrove forest revival project will reduce sea intrusion at some extent, “The Indus delta area is consisted on 15 lac acres while the government has so far covered 5.5 lac acres where the shield of mangroves has been formed between Karachi and Sujawal districts and surprisingly its growth rate has increased 300 times in last two decades.”
But Ameer Bux thinks that mangroves alone couldn’t do much more or stop sea intrusion at a great extent but it should be the government’s sincere efforts in making river Indus clear of all the obstructions. “How the people sitting in AC offices of Islamabad could know and understand the severity of sea intrusion or the losses to people of delta who have become the poorest among all?” he questions.
According to Mirbahar, despite some rehabilitation efforts and large scale mangrove restorations, the lack of consistent freshwater supply and proper Indus River and Delta Management Plan continues to threaten the delta’s ecological and socioeconomic stability. “On the other hand in the absence of river flow, the extensive water mining to meet domestic needs of megacities like Karachi and its sister cities has exacerbated the situation.”
Jat concludes, “Every research study recommends that downstream Kotri needs at least 5-10 million acre feet water to minimise the impacts of sea intrusion and the main point of 1991 Water Accord was also that 10 million acre feet of water shall flow downstream all the way to sea in order to avoid sea intrusion but practically below Kotri water flow is zero in most years as a result of which sea intrusion has reached alarming proportions”.
The writer is a freelance journalist based from Sindh and he can be reached at abbaskhaskheli110@gmail.com
All facts and information are the sole responsibility of the writer