Bangladesh: the four political power players

The dramatic events of August 4 and 5 which led to the collapse of the Government of Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina plunged Bangladesh into another web of vicious crisis. Sheikh Hasina's unceremonial exit from power and her subsequent escape to India has led to the emergence of four major power centres on Bangladesh's political landscape that are in conflict with each other.

Bangladesh - under the 15-year-long rule of Sheikh Hasina - was emerging as an economic powerhouse in South Asia because of its rising per capita income and economic growth rate, booming exports and soaring foreign exchange reserves. But the country's economic progress and development has taken a big hit. The weeks of political turmoil and violence have caused irreparable damage to Bangladesh's economy with foreign exchange reserves declining to 21 billion dollars and the economic growth rate coming down to 5.1% from 6%. Furthermore, political violence and regime change is bound to have a negative impact on Bangladesh's exports.

A number of questions now arise, including: what is the future of Bangladesh following the dismissal of Sheikh Hasina from power on August 5 and the formation of an interim government led by Dr Mohammad Yunus, a Nobel Laureate and a well-respected economist? How is the successful popular agitation against Sheikh Hasina going to mutate and what will be the outcome of the cases that have been lodged against the ousted prime minister? How long will the interim set-up last and to what extent will the Bangladesh Army continue its support to those at the helm of affairs?

Dr Yunus called the Indian Prime Minister, Narendra Modi the other day and assured him of protecting Hindu community in Bangladesh which has experienced attacks by the Awami League opponents. Providing refuge to Sheikh Hasina will prove counterproductive for India because she has now become a liability for New Delhi. Some Indian circles are openly expressing reservations on the shelter being provided to the former Bangladeshi Prime Minister who back home is accused of extrajudicial killings, political repression against her opponents like the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), use of excessive force to quell the students' agitation against the job quota system, and corruption and nepotism.

Amid the political upheaval, four major power players have emerged on the political scene in Bangladesh since August 5. They are: student community; Army; BNP; and Awami League. The emerging situation in Bangladesh needs to be analysed from three angles.

First, the student community - whose violent protest spread over weeks led to the fall of the Sheikh Hasina government - is still united in its resolve to ensure that the so-called fascist mode of governance of Sheikh Hasina is never allowed again. When, on August 15, Awami League supporters tried to express their solidarity for Sheikh Mujibur Rahman, the slain founder president and the father of the nation, they were met with serious resistance from rival students groups. The call raised by Sheikh Hasina to pay homage to her father - who was killed along with almost his entire family by a group of Bangladesh military on August 15, 1975 - turned out to be a failure to a large extent. Furthermore, on assuming power, the interim government of Dr Yunus canceled August 15 - the Independence Day of India - as a national holiday in Bangladesh.

Second, the Bangladesh Army is currently facing a difficult situation because of the penetration of pro- Awami League and pro-Indian elements in its rank and file. The perceived ambitions of Chief of Army Staff General Waker-uz-Zaman to take over after Sheikh Hasina's exit were thwarted by student leaders who made it loud and clear that they would not tolerate any martial law in the country. The penetration of India and its intelligence agency, RAW, into key instruments of power in Bangladesh like bureaucracy, judiciary and military cannot be underestimated. RAW's permeation in Bangladeshi state and society like media, academia and business community is a reality.

Third is how BNP and Awami League, the two major political parties of Bangladesh, will cope with the post-August 5 situation in the country. If Awami League is carrying the baggage of the 15 years of corruption, nepotism and political repression under Sheikh Hasina, BNP is also in a quandary because of the years of oppression it suffered at the hands of the Sheikh Hasina government. The political vacuum that surfaced in Bangladesh after the August 5 tumult is a major challenge. Although Jamaat-e-Islami is a banned political party, it may still get back in the reckoning if the Supreme Court of Bangladesh reverses its decision of outlawing it.

It seems the silent majority in Bangladesh which for years tolerated the Awami League's fascist mode of governance will not let their country plunge into perpetual chaos and disorder. If the interim government focuses on economic revival and take a firm position against corruption and nepotism, it will win the support of the masses. Holding free and fair elections in a foreseeable future will surely save Bangladesh from another phase of economic crisis and political instability.

The various conspiracy theories doing the rounds in the country - whereby Pakistan, China and the United States are being blamed for orchestrating a regime change in Bangladesh - lack merit and credibility. After all, more than 400 students lost their lives in the agitation against the Sheikh Hasina government, and the regime change in Bangladesh is clearly the outcome of domestic factors rather than any external engineering.

The resignation and dismissal of key office-holders like the Supreme Court Chief Justice, the Police Chief and the Central Bank Governor as well as the recalling of Bangladesh ambassadors from seven key countries show that the interim government wants to cleanse bureaucracy and judiciary of Sheikh Hasina's trusted officials so as to consolidate its grip on power.

The onus is on Dr Mohammad Yunus who despite his old age has all what is takes to meet the aspirations of the people of Bangladesh.