Jolt for India, chance for Pakistan

When Sheikh Hasina returned to the Prime Minister Office after a highly controversial, one-sided victory in the January 2024 general election in Bangladesh, few would have thought her latest term would only last a few months. Last month when students took to the streets demanding the abolition of the quota system in government jobs, Sheikh Hasina's administration used brute force to crush the movement. As many as 200 people, including dozens of children, as confirmed by Unicef, were killed. After weeks of protests, there was a lull in unrest when the Supreme Court overturned the High Court decision on the quota system. But students returned to the streets after a few days, demanding justice for those who were killed and more importantly the resignation of Sheikh Hasina. The day the protest resumed was the bloodiest, as more than 90 people were killed in a single day. Protesters defied the countrywide curfew and the government threats labeling them as terrorists.

That Sunday evening, I picked up the phone to talk to one of my journalist friends in Dhaka. What he told me was clear that Hasina's fate had been sealed. The journalist friend had no doubt that the beleaguered Prime Minister had no chance to survive. The very next morning the local and international media started reporting that protesters were on their way to storm the Prime Minister Office. A day before, the country's military informed the besieged Prime Minister that they would not fire at protesters. That was a clear message for Sheikh Hasina from an army chief whom she handpicked in June. Sheikh Hasina wanted to address the nation for one last time. She was ready but the satellite van that was supposed to air her farewell address instead went to the Army Chief office. She was done by that time. Breaking news soon started flashing all over the world that Sheikh Hasina had resigned and fled to neighbouring India.

The army chief then delivered a televised address, announcing that an interim government will be established and the country would be put back on the road to normalcy. Protesting students made it clear that they would neither accept military rule nor any military-backed setup. Instead they proposed their own framework and name of the person who would lead the new setup. The military accepted the students' demand as Nobel Laureate Muhammad Younus was appointed as Chief Adviser of the interim government. As per the Bangladesh Constitution, elections will have to take place within 90 days after the formation of the interim government. However, the acting law minister said the interim setup would stay as long as it is necessary.

While the future of Bangladesh and its checkered democracy hang in the balance, the ouster of Sheikh Hasina has far-reaching ramifications for the region. Sheikh Hasina had been a longstanding ally of India. In fact many Bangladeshis consider her an Indian puppet. It was also one of the reasons behind his ouster. Sheikh Hasina helped India fight militancy in its northeastern states bordering Bangladesh. In return, India made investments and provided credit lines and other assistance to Bangladesh. But those years of bonhomie may unravel. India and Bangladesh share over 4,000km-long border and New Delhi would certainly want a friendly government in Dhaka to protect its interests and more importantly ensure peace in its restive northeastern states. This evolving situation in Bangladesh will also play into the hands of China, which has been for years trying to increase its influence in countries once close to India. New Delhi will surely have to recalibrate its strategy accordingly.

Under Sheikh Hasina, the relationship between Pakistan and Bangladesh had only gone from bad to worse. Islamabad's overtures were not reciprocated by Hasina due to her close proximity to New Delhi and animosity towards Pakistan. Her ouster, however, may open new possibilities for Pakistan to reset ties with Bangladesh. For Pakistan, it is time for deft diplomacy.