Population control as a key to climate resilience

The rapid acceleration of Pakistan’s population growth is severely compounding the nation’s resource scarcity and amplifying the formidable challenges posed by climate change. Despite Pakistan’s negligible contribution to global warming and carbon emissions, it is paradoxically one of the most adversely affected countries. The Global Climate Risk Index ranks Pakistan fifth among the nations most susceptible to climate change. Concurrently, it stands as the fifth most populous country globally. However, in terms of per capita income, Pakistan languishes at 161^st place, and its GDP is ranked 138^th. With a growth rate approximating 2%, the country’s population increase effectively nullifies its developmental progress.

The severity of Pakistan’s population dilemma is starkly illustrated by various statistics. Efforts to maintain a balance between population and resources are increasingly futile, and climate change exacerbates this imbalance. Resource scarcity heightens the vulnerability of impoverished communities to natural disasters, necessitating a greater allocation of resources for their rehabilitation. This, in turn, strains the national economy, diverting resources from productive uses. Between 1980 and 2021, Pakistan’s average temperature rose by 0.9 degrees Celsius. The Global Climate Risk Index designates Pakistan as the 27^th least prepared country to mitigate the impacts of climate change. From 1998 to 2018, climate change-induced disasters resulted in over 10,000 fatalities in Pakistan and inflicted economic damages amounting to four billion dollars. The catastrophic floods of 2022 alone resulted in losses exceeding 30 billion dollars.

Research conducted by international organisations operating in disaster-affected regions reveals that population growth and climate change could plunge 80 to 90 million Pakistanis below the poverty line. At the current annual growth rate, Pakistan will necessitate 104 million jobs and 15.5 million homes. Climate change is disrupting rainfall patterns, accelerating glacier melt, and increasing the frequency of floods, droughts, and sea storms, which further escalates the risks of economic decline. Environmental experts forecast that the trend of extreme temperatures will persist until at least 2027.

Pakistan, once an exporter of wheat, has now become an importer due to the adverse effects of population growth and climate change. This population surge also impinges upon resource distribution. According to the Population Council of Pakistan, by 2040, the country will require at least 57,000 additional primary schools. Currently, 25 million children are already deprived of education, and achieving universal primary education could take another fifty years.

The burgeoning population not only heightens the risk of food insecurity but also contributes to increased carbon emissions. Consequently, global warming has a profound impact on Pakistan, diminishing agricultural productivity. Agricultural scientists have long advocated for the promotion of traditional grains such as millet, barley, and maize to reduce the pressure on wheat production. Population growth also drives deforestation and the reduction of agricultural land. Over the past two decades, the number of trees in Pakistan has diminished by one percent, and from 2017 to 2020, arable land decreased by three percent.

Urban population growth significantly contributes to rising temperatures. The proliferation of air conditioners, which generate dry heat, has increased by more than five percent in urban areas and by over three percent in rural areas over the past fifteen years. Despite these changes, discussions on climate change in Pakistan predominantly focus on carbon emission reduction strategies, overlooking the critical nexus between population growth and environmental change.

To effectively address the climate change challenges facing Pakistan, it is imperative to prioritise controlling the rampant population growth rate. Achieving a balance between population and resources will facilitate the well-being and prosperity of future generations. Comprehensive strategies that integrate population control measures with environmental sustainability efforts are crucial for Pakistan’s resilience against climate change.