Navigating population boom

Pakistan’s population growth presents a complex challenge for the nation’s economic development. While a large population can be a potential source of labour and economic dynamism, its rapid growth can strain resources and hinder progress. The rapid demographic shift has sparked a national conversation, often focused on women’s education and empowerment as the sole solution. While crucial, a more nuanced approach is needed. Population dynamics often become heated debates, frequently placing the burden of responsibility squarely on women. This perspective is unfair and misinformed.

Based on the 7th National Population and Housing Census, the country’s population is 241.5 million, making it the world’s fifth most populous country. Data indicates that the population growth rate of Punjab and Sindh has increased. Pakistan made its first Five-Year Plan (1965-70) to lower the fertility rate. However, over the years, the family planning programme has experienced several changes. Devolution after the 18th Constitutional Amendment has offered provinces an opportunity to introduce province-specific population control policies. Some progress has been made, attributable to deliberate investments in improving the lives and well-being of girls and women. These investments are made at provincial levels, and therefore, there is variation across provinces.

The current population growth rate stands at around 2%, translating to an annual increase of over 4.6 million people. Our population growth rate outpaces regional neighbours like India (0.68%) and Bangladesh (1.07%). This rapid growth is attributed to several factors, including a high total fertility rate (TFR) and a young population structure. The TFR, which represents the average number of children a woman will have in her lifetime, remains above replacement level at around 3.4 births per woman. Additionally, a significant portion of the population falls under the age of 30, further fuelling future growth.

Pakistan is a signatory to Family Planning (FP) commitments and an active global family planning community member. The FP 2030 commitments include, among others, universal access to services to lower fertility rates, address the unmet need for contraception, and institutionalise human development and system strengthening to sustain family planning efforts. However, the percentage of women estimated to have an unmet need for modern methods of contraception has remained the same from 2019 to 2023 at 17.7% (FP 2030).

Figures indicate that government policies are still unable to achieve the desired objectives due to a conservative environment and a low level of acceptance of family planning. Societal pressures around masculinity can discourage men from discussing contraception, limiting access to information and resources. Policymakers need to address these social norms and promote shared responsibility.

Men play a crucial role in family planning and reproductive decisions, yet their involvement is often underemphasised. In Pakistan, traditional gender roles can limit women’s autonomy in making reproductive choices. Men, as heads of households, often have significant influence over the number of children a family has. Encouraging male involvement in family planning through education and outreach can help balance this dynamic.

Pakistan can learn valuable lessons from its South Asian counterparts. Bangladesh, for instance, achieved significant reductions in fertility rates. Their approach included strong government commitment, investing in family planning infrastructure, and crucially, engaging men as active participants in reproductive health discussions. Additionally, Bangladesh effectively utilised community health workers, particularly females, to reach rural populations.

Economic factors significantly impact population growth. When families see better opportunities for their children, particularly daughters, they are more likely to have smaller families. The government needs to create a job market that absorbs a growing youth population and provides economic security. Additionally, investing in skill development programmes can empower women to enter the workforce and contribute to the economy.

On the other hand, a large population can be a source of abundant labour, potentially driving economic activity. This “demographic dividend” can occur when a working-age population expands faster than the dependent population (children and elderly). A larger workforce can contribute to increased production, innovation, and economic diversification. However, Pakistan faces challenges in effectively harnessing its demographic dividend. One critical issue is the skill gap. A significant portion of the workforce lacks the necessary education and training to compete in today’s job market. This skills mismatch creates unemployment and underemployment, hindering productivity and economic growth.

Another significant challenge posed by rapid population growth is the strain on essential resources. The growing population intensifies competition for resources such as water, impacting agriculture, industry, and household consumption. The rapid population growth puts a burden on infrastructure development. The demand for housing, transportation, energy, and healthcare services increases exponentially. The government struggles to keep pace with this demand, leading to inadequate infrastructure and a decline in the quality of life for many citizens. With limited job creation and resource allocation, the poorest segments of society are often disproportionately affected.

Addressing the challenges associated with population growth requires a multi-pronged approach. One critical area of focus is family planning and education. However, simply reducing population growth is not enough. Pakistan also needs to focus on strategies to harness the potential of its young population. This includes investing in education and skills training programmes to equip the workforce with the skills needed for the modern economy. Furthermore, promoting economic growth through private sector development and job creation is crucial. A vibrant economy can generate sufficient opportunities to absorb the growing workforce and improve living standards. Policies that attract investment, promote entrepreneurship, and foster innovation can play a significant role in this regard.

While a large population can be a source of economic dynamism, effective policies are needed to harness its potential. Investing in education, family planning, infrastructure development, and resource management are crucial steps towards achieving sustainable economic growth and improving the well-being of all citizens. By creating a skilled workforce, fostering job creation, and managing resources effectively, Pakistan can navigate its demographic transition and build a brighter future for its growing population.
THE WRITER IS A PHD SCHOLAR AT
IBA, KARACHI