Far-right unlikely to win majority in France's second-round early elections

The far-right National Rally (RN) alliance, which led with more than 33% in the first round of France's early elections, may not secure an absolute majority in the National Assembly due to the cooperation of left and center parties before a July 7 runoff.

In the first round, the RN party's alliance received 10 million votes, accounting for one-third of valid votes.

The far-right alliance led with 33.15%, the New People's Front on the left and environmental parties followed with 28%. President Emmanuel Macron’s "Together for the Republic" alliance was third with 20%.

The winners of 76 of 577 seats were determined in the first round with 39 deputies from the far-right, 32 from the left alliance, two from Macron's alliance and three from center-right and other right-wing parties elected.

Among them are Sebastien Delogu from the Unbowed France (LFI) party, who faced a 15-day suspension for displaying the Palestinian flag on May 28, and far-right leader Marine Le Pen.

The center-right Republicans and Macron's alliance, whose vote share dropped to 6.6% in the first round, were the election's biggest losers.

Compared to 2022, the far-right gained 14 points, the left alliance added two points, Macron's alliance lost six and the Republicans lost four points. In the second round, the remaining 501 seats will be decided, with candidates needing at least 12.5% in the first round to advance.

Polls suggest far-right may fall short of absolute majority

Days before the second round, a July 3 poll by "Toluna Harris Interactive" for Challenges, M6, and RTL suggests the RN alliance may not reach the 289 seats needed for an absolute majority.

The poll said after the second round, the RN-led alliance could win 190 - 220 seats, the New People's Front 159 - 183 seats, Macron's alliance 110 - 135 seats and the Republicans could gain 30 - 50 seats.

Before the first round, the research firm predicted that the RN could between 220 and 260 seats, the New People's Front 120 to 150, and Macron's alliance 80 to 130. It showed a surge in support for the New People's Front and Macron's alliance, hinting at tacit cooperation against the far-right.

On the other hand, a poll by Ifop-Fiducial for LCI, Sud Radio and Le Figaro on July 4 indicated that the RN alliance could win 210 - 240 seats, the New People's Front alliance 170 - 200 seats, and Macron's alliance 95 - 125 seats.

Only far-right bloc in position to win absolute majority

Prime Minister Gabriel Attal told Radio France that in constituencies where three candidates advanced to the second round, the withdrawal of center and left alliance candidates against the far-right "may not please many French voters who voted to block the far-right," but he stressed that it was a "responsibility."

Attal said about the second round, "There is only one bloc poised to win an absolute majority, and that is the far-right."

Many candidates withdrew in second round to avoid vote-splitting

According to first-round results, three candidates advanced in 306 electoral districts, prompting more than 200 contenders from other parties to withdraw to prevent splitting votes and giving an advantage to the far-right.

Candidates had until the evening of July 2 to decide if to continue in the race. According to the latest figures from the Interior Ministry, 215 candidates opted not to participate in the second round to block the RN.

In the last three elections, the RN has continued to increase its votes. Most recently, in the June 9 European Parliament elections, it secured the top spot with 31.4%.

Macron dissolved the National Assembly after the elections, leading to early polls on June 30 in the first round and July 7 for the second.