Modi to maintain ‘status quo’ in Pak ties

As Narendra Modi is set to become the prime minister for a record third time, equalling the feat of Jawaharlal Nehru, Islamabad expects no change in India’s policy towards Pakistan, according to an internal assessment.

Two people familiar with the internal assessment told The Express Tribune on Wednesday that the outcome of the Indian elections was not surprising because they were getting the same reports from the ground.

“The real issues of poverty, unemployment, inflation, etc., got the better of Modi’s divisive and hate politics over religion,” commented one official, who requested not to be named since he was not authorized to speak on the subject publically.

“People of India appear to have fought against a repressive, autocratic, majoritarian, fascist regime,” the official added. The ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) may have emerged as the single largest party but fell well short of the 400- mark Modi had boasted about ahead of the polls. It was a bittersweet victory as Modi, for the first time in a decade, will have to rely on regional parties to form the government.

This is going to be uncharted territory for Modi, who as first chief minister of India’s western state of Gujarat and later as prime minister ruled with an absolute majority.

According to Pakistan’s assessment, while the BJP held on to its traditional constituencies of Hindutva ideologies, it really got bitten by “smart regional outplay of regional parties especially in UP [Uttar Pradesh] and pan India unification of Muslim vote living under oppression by Modi agenda”.

“Era of Modi guarantee and him [being] bigger than BJP and RSS is over as of now – alliance-based rule is back, which Modi disrespected, manipulated and ignored for a decade,” it further noted.

The narrow margin of victory could be a ‘double-edged sword’. Modi either will mend his ways or opt for more aggressive policies to revive his mojo. “A strong opposition on its heels may push BJP to aggressively pursue its Hindutva project,” cautioned the official.

“Modi’s domestic and foreign policies will remain unchanged, especially with no change towards Pakistan Policy – as it will be more poised towards internal challenges,” the official added.

 The BJP expected Pakistan to accept the new status quo created in the wake of the removal of the special status of the disputed Jammu and Kashmir region in August 2019.

“There appears no serious appetite for meaningful talk and it is very unlikely that Modi/BJP will approach Pakistan for talks anytime soon, unless Pakistan regresses,” said another official.

The government has been advised through the internal assessment that unless there is seriousness for peace by India and talks to resume under the ambit of Comprehensive Dialogue (including Kashmir) and trade to resume under the ambit of reviving SAARC, there is no need for Pakistan even to show desperation.