How Pakistan can beat the heat and save the planet
The writer is currently serving as Practice Manager, Climate Change and Disaster Risk Management for South Asia at the World Bank
The temperature in Turbat district of Balochistan hit 54°C (129.2°F) on 28 May 2023. This was not only the highest temperature ever recorded in Pakistan but also the hottest reliably measured temperature ever recorded on the continent of Asia and the fourth-highest temperature ever recorded on Earth.
As temperature records tumble across the globe, Pakistan faces a looming threat of extreme heat events that could pose serious risks to its people, economy and environment. Extreme heat events are periods of abnormally high temperatures that exceed the normal range of variation for a given location and time of year. They can cause heat stress, dehydration, heat stroke and death; reduce crop yields; increase energy demand; and worsen air quality and water scarcity. According to a recent study by the World Bank, Pakistan is among the top 10 countries most vulnerable to climate change, with an average annual temperature increase of 1.5°C since 1900. The study also projects that by 2050, Pakistan could experience more than 30 days of extreme heat per year, compared to less than 10 days in the past. This means that we need to act now and prepare for the inevitable impacts of extreme heat events.
The impacts of extreme heat events on Pakistan’s health, growth and poverty could be devastating if the country fails to act and prepare. Extreme heat events can increase mortality and morbidity rates, especially among senior citizens, children, pregnant women, outdoor workers and low-income groups. According to a study by The Lancet, Pakistan had over 67,000 heat-related deaths in 2019, ranking fourth in the world. Extreme heat events can also reduce labour productivity and economic output, as workers have to cope with heat stress, dehydration and fatigue. A study by the Asian Development Bank estimated that Pakistan could lose up to 6.8% of its GDP by 2050 due to the effects of climate change, including extreme heat events. Extreme heat events can also exacerbate poverty and inequality, as the poor and marginalised are more exposed and vulnerable to heat risks and have less access to coping mechanisms, such as cooling, health care and social protection. A report by the World Bank warned that climate change could push an additional 100 million people into poverty by 2030, with South Asia being one of the most affected regions.
Pakistan urgently needs to shift from a reactive, “disaster response” approach to extreme heat to a proactive and strategic approach, as some countries are doing. For example, Miami was the first city to appoint a Chief Heat Officer in 2020. She leads and coordinates the city’s response to extreme heat, raises awareness, identifies vulnerable communities and implements solutions. Other cities that have appointed chief heat officers include Phoenix, Athens and Freetown. The first city to issue a heat action plan was Ahmedabad in India, which launched its heat action plan in 2013 after a deadly heatwave in 2010 that killed more than 1,300 people. The heat action plan includes early warning systems, public awareness campaigns, heatstroke centres, water points and other measures to reduce the impact of extreme heat on the population. Ahmedabad’s heat action plan has been praised as a model for other cities in South Asia and beyond. Another example is Australia, which has invested in research and innovation to develop passive cooling solutions, such as low-cost evaporative coolers, phase change materials and solar-reflective coatings that can reduce indoor temperature and energy consumption without relying on electricity or refrigerants.
Another key aspect of preparing for extreme heat events is to protect the poor and vulnerable groups that are often the most affected by the heat risks. Some countries have adopted social protection policies and programmes that can provide financial and non-financial assistance to heat victims, such as cash transfers, health insurance, food subsidies and livelihood support. For example, Mexico’s Temporary Employment Program or PET1 (Programa de Empleo Temporal) is an example of a social safety net programme in a middle-income country that has integrated disaster risk management and climate change adaptation into its operations.
Enhancing urban planning and design, which can affect the urban heat island effect — the phenomenon of greater temperatures in urban regions relative to rural areas because of human activities and structures — is a third strategy for preparing for extreme heat events. Some countries have adopted green infrastructure strategies that can enhance the natural cooling capacity of the urban environment, such as planting trees and vegetation, creating parks and gardens and restoring wetlands and water bodies. For example, Singapore has a vision of becoming a “city in a garden”, which aims to integrate greenery and biodiversity into the urban landscape. Singapore has increased its green cover from 36% in 1986 to 47% in 2017 and has implemented various initiatives to promote rooftop gardens, vertical greenery and urban farming. These efforts have helped Singapore reduce its urban heat island intensity by 4°C over the past three decades.
Pakistan has a window of opportunity to act now and prepare for extreme heat events, which could positively impact its people, economy and environment. Pakistan can save lives, enhance productivity and reduce poverty by investing in heat preparedness measures, such as early warning systems, passive cooling solutions and social protection programmes. By improving its urban planning and design, such as increasing green cover, creating green spaces and restoring water bodies, Pakistan can lower its urban temperature, improve its air quality and water security and increase its livability and resilience. Pakistan may show leadership and commitment to the Paris Agreement by participating in international efforts to combat and adapt to climate change. However, if Pakistan fails to act and prepare for extreme heat events, it could face dire consequences for its health, growth and poverty, as well as its environment and security. The choice is clear: Pakistan must act now and prepare for extreme heat events.
Published in The Express Tribune, March 21st, 2024.
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