Would Trump’s return change the global landscape?

With Nikki Haley exiting the presidential race, Donald Trump has won the Republican primaries with an astounding lead on Super Tuesday. As reported by CNN, President Joe Biden and Donald Trump made their rematch all but official, with both notching huge Super Tuesday wins. More than a dozen states held primaries or caucuses on Tuesday, the biggest day of the nominating races so far as the 2024 presidential campaign accelerates, and leaves the one-by-one march through early-voting states behind.

This article is an attempt to analyse the global impact Trump’s potential return will have. Areas under consideration are as follows: the age debate (as both contenders are very old); how Trump will impact Russia-Ukraine war; the dynamics of his handling of China; impact on US-Europe relations; the question of whether Trump will bring peace to the simmering Middle East.

Time Magazine has recently analysed age factor in the US politics. The ageing of US presidents is a new normal; Joe Biden is four years older than Donald Trump. When Biden became the oldest president ever to be sworn in back in 2021, it was Trump’s record he was breaking. Now, the two candidates reappear set to be the oldest pair of major party nominees in history. Polls show that voters are far more worried about whether the 81-year-old President could handle another four years in the White House than his 77-year-old predecessor, a concern that exploded into the forefront after a report alleged Biden exhibited multiple memory lapses. Voters, political strategists and others suggest that those sentiments are about more than Biden being older than Trump; it’s how the behaviour and appearance of the two men, Biden in particular, have changed in recent years. With the oldest presidential match-up in the US history, issues of health and competency are likely to come up again and again over the next nine months. Both the campaigns will be working to make their opponent seem doddy, senile and infirm.

A report on an inquiry into Biden’s handling of sensitive data was released recently and it may have been the most devastating blow to that argument. Republican Special Counsel, Robert Hur, a former Trump appointment, claimed that although the President was ‘a sympathetic, well-meaning, elderly man with a poor memory’, he was unable to recall fundamental facts. Hur stated that he was not filing charges against Biden. The Trump team swiftly released a statement calling Biden ‘senile’. During a hurried press conference, President Biden defended his recall, saying, “My memory is fine,” and expressed outrage at Hur’s charges.

The most challenging factor for US establishment is Trump’s impact on Russia-Ukraine war. Some senior security pundits suggest that he will accelerate Putin’s advances towards Kyiv. A CNBC report published in January this year has shed light on Trump’s Russia policy. Trump has asserted time and again that he is in a good position to negotiate an end to the war, and that he gets along well with both the leaders of Russia and Ukraine. He has regularly showered Putin with accolades over his political career, even following Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.

Days after Russian tanks entered Ukraine, Trump praised Putin as a ‘smart’ political operator and praised Russia for retaking a ‘great piece of land’ so quickly at the expense of what he claimed were just minor penalties during a campaign event in Georgia.

The House of Representatives in the US impeached President Trump on the grounds that he had forced Zelensky to conduct a politically motivated investigation. The investigation could harm Biden’s chances of winning the 2020 presidential election while withholding $400 million in military aid that Congress had approved to support Ukraine. The Senate, however, acquitted Trump of the impeachment charges.

The Wall Street Journal suggests that Trump’s Russia policy is appeasement and like Chamberlain in the 1930s, he sees Ukraine as a faraway quarrel to avoid. This won’t bring peace or stop Putin. On the other hand, Europe is expected to become the net loser in case of Trump’s victory. Russia-Ukraine war has already put European security and economy in dire straits; in case Trump tries to change the trajectory of the war into a compromise with Russian Federation, Europe is likely to witness more chaos and bewilderment and create a wedge between political leadership and the people of Europe, as most of common Europeans are fed up with the ongoing war.

In terms of Trumps’ relations with China, Jeff Stein, while writing for The Washington Post, opines that Trump is analysing his options for a significant new economic assault on China should he be re-elected. These plans are generally seen as having the potential to start a worldwide trade war. Trump has openly supported lowering China’s trading status with the US, a move that would result in a sharp increase in tariffs between the two biggest economies in the world. One estimate suggests that the removal of China’s trade status as the ‘most favored nation,’ which is applicable to nearly all nations the US trades with, may result in federal tariffs on Chinese imports exceeding 40%. A 10% tariff on almost all imports, which would have totaled $3 trillion in 2022, has been suggested by Trump.

The powder keg of the Middle East has already exploded on 7 October 2023, with Hamas attacking Israeli mainland and the genocide of Palestinians by the Israeli forces. Trump’s strategic project of Abraham Accord has been badly affected with Arab allies in a very challenging position to bring the warring factions back to the negotiating table. By the time the next US president is sworn in, in January 2025, the war will further expand. So, will Trump emerge as the man of peace in the Middle East? This is a million-dollar question.

Published in The Express Tribune, March 13^th, 2024.

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