Fairness score of polls lowest since 2013

The Pakistan Institute of Legislative Development and Transparency (Pildat) on Wednesday reported that the fairness score of this year’s general elections had plummeted to its lowest level since 2013.

A report issued by Pildat pointed out that the 2024 general polls scored only 49% in terms of the overall quality – a figure that was lower than those of the past two elections – 52% and 57% in 2018 and 2013, respectively.

The report observed that the overall assessment score for the pre-poll phase in 2024 general elections stood at 50%, matching that of 2018 but falling significantly short of 62% in 2013.

One part of the report assessed the voting process itself, including the performance of polling staff, the quality of polling stations, and safety during voting hours.

According to the report, the assessment score received for this year’s general elections stands at 58% for this part against 64% in 2018.

“This shows that in our assessment, the phase of polling day, including the voting process, performance of polling staff, quality of polling stations, and safety during voting hours was assessed to be poorer than that of [the] 2018 general election[s], the report read.

“However, it scored higher than the score of [the 2013] general elections [that] stood at 44%,” it continued.

“The part two of the polling day phase was about the counting of votes, compilation and transmission of results from polling stations to returning officers, consolidation of constituency results and announcement of provisional results.”

The assessment score assigned to this phase in this year’s general election stood at 40%, which was identical to that of the 2018 polls.

The report pointed out that the 2013 general elections received the score of 50% in this phase, while in both 2002 and 2008 polls, it stood at 47%.

It noted that the 2024 elections ranking level stood at 40% for the post-polls phase.  It added that this was an all-time low score, which mirrored that of the 2002 general elections that had witnessed unprecedented post-poll rigging in recent years. “This low score indicates a low level of trust for the post-election phase,” it read.

The Pildat report highlighted the key issues that had negatively affected the quality of the 2024 general elections.

They included considerable delays in scheduling of the elections in the pre-poll phase, political repression, lack of impartiality from the caretaker governments and state institutions as well as the worsening law and order situation in Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan.

On polling day, the suspension of mobile phone and internet services not only compromised the Election Management System (EMS) but also created problems for public participation in the electoral process.

After polling was completed, the delay in the announcement of the provisional results beyond the deadline fixed under Section 13(3) of the Elections Act, 2017, prompted serious questions about the credibility of elections.

The Pildat report observed that the widespread allegations of discrepancy between Forms-45 and Form-47 have also added to the concerns about the credibility of the polls.

The delay in the publishing of Forms 45, 46, 48 and 49 on the Election Commission of Pakistan’s (ECP) website – in violation of Section 95 (10) of the Elections Act, 2017 -- has further damaged the credibility of the elections.

Lastly, Pildat noted that the allocation of reserved seats to the Sunni Ittehad Council (SIC) – a smaller party that accommodated PTI-backed independent lawmakers -- continued to be a major point of contention for 25 days since the polling day.

It added that the reserved seats were eventually allotted to other political parties.

Pildat recommended that the Election Commission of Pakistan (ECP) should conduct a thorough and impartial investigation into (1) the delays in the transmission, consolidation and announcement of provisional results, (2) the lack of contingency planning to meet result issuance deadlines in case of the EMS inoperability, and (3) the failure to publish signed copies of forms 45, 46, 48 and 49 within 14 days of polling day as required under the Elections Act, 2017.

Also read: Polls’ fairness appears just as bleak as 2018 elections: PILDAT

It also recommended that election tribunals should be allowed to resolve disputes on a case-by-case basis. The second recommendation is to form a commission of enquiry like the one formed to probe into the 2013 general elections.

A day earlier, Gallup Pakistan issued a separate report which stated that overall, the PTI-backed independent candidates attained the most vote share (31%) followed by the PML-N (24%) and PPP (14%).

It further read that in Punjab, a close contest took place between PTI-backed independent candidates (36%) and PML-N (34%) for the vote share.

It added that in Sindh, the PPP led with a majority vote share (46%), with the Grand Democratic Alliance (GDA) trailing behind at 10%.

In K-P, the report stated that the PTI-backed independent candidates took the highest vote share (47%), with the JUI-F coming in second (16%).

In Balochistan, independent candidates took the lead in vote share (20%), with the JUI-F coming in second at 14%.

In Islamabad, a close contest was witnessed between the PTI-backed independent candidates (33%) and PML-N (32%) for the vote share.

The report read that the PTI had the highest vote share in K-P (47%), Punjab (36%) and ICT (33%). It continued that the PPP had the highest share in Sindh (46%) and the PML-N in Balochistan (14%).

In term of the seats won, the Gallup report stated that overall, the PTI-backed independent candidates led with 93 seats and the PML-N came in second with 75 seats.

In 70 constituencies across Pakistan, the PTI-backed independent candidates had a victory margin of 10-50%.

In Punjab, the PML-N led with 67 seats while the PTI-backed independent candidates came in second with 54 seats.

In 61 constituencies of Punjab, the PML-N had a victory margin of 5-10%.

In Sindh, the PPP (44 seats) and MQM-P (17 seats) reigned supreme in the province.

In 74 constituencies of Sindh, the PPP had a victory margin of 10-50%.

In K-P, the PTI-backed independent candidates took an unassailable lead with 38 seats. In 34 constituencies of K-P, the PTI-backed independent candidates had a victory margin of 10-50%.

In Balochistan, the PML-N took a narrow lead with four seats.

In eight constituencies of Balochistan, the PPP had a victory margin of 10-50%.

The PML-N took a lead in Islamabad with two seats while a PTI-backed independent candidate secured one seat. In the two constituencies of Islamabad, the PML-N had a victory margin of 5-10% and 10-50%, respectively.