Modi greets Shehbaz but sends a ‘quiet’ message

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi on Tuesday congratulated Shehbaz Sharif on assuming the charge of prime minister but his brief post on X apparently carried a ‘quiet’ message for Pakistan.

Modi, who is nearing his second term as prime minister, previously congratulated Imran Khan and Shehbaz Sharif in August 2018 and April 2022 respectively.

In fact, he spoke to then prime minister Imran when he got elected as the country’s chief executive. He also invited Nawaz Sharif in May 2014 to attend his swearing in ceremony along with other South Asian leaders.

But what was different this time is that Modi’s statement was not only brief but he made no mention of any desire for normalising ties or seeking peace with Pakistan.

“Congratulations to @CMShehbaz on being sworn in as the Prime Minister of Pakistan,” he wrote on X.

“In diplomacy, it is important what you say but what you don’t say is even more important,” commented a source. There was no mention of any desire for seeking peace or reference to terrorism in his statement.

When Shehbaz replaced Imran as prime minister in April 2022, the Indian premier’s message was more explicit and warm. “Congratulation to H. E. Mian Muhammad Shehbaz Sharif on his election as the Prime Minister of Pakistan. India desires peace and stability in a region free of terror, so that we can focus on our development challenges and ensure the well-being and prosperity of our region,” he had said at the time in a congratulatory message to the Pakistani prime minister.

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Observers believe that Modi’s terse statement is a quiet message for Pakistan regarding the nature of relationship his country wants with the neighbour.

Analysts and former diplomats believe that Modi’s message reflects the current Indian policy on Pakistan.

“Elections in India are around the corner. Modi would not like to suggest to Indian people at this point in time any flexibility in India’s position towards Pakistan,” remarked Abdul Basit, Pakistan’s former High Commissioner to New Delhi.

Indian parliamentary elections are expected to take place in April-May and Modi is poised to return as prime minister for the record third time.

Hard-line stances on Pakistan in the past helped Modi gain popularity. There were, however, prospects of some ice break prior to the elections in Pakistan because of the possibility of Nawaz Sharif becoming prime minister for the record fourth time. But the split verdict and elder Sharif’s decision not to opt for the top job diminished those chances.

Some observers believe that had Nawaz become prime minister the reaction from the Modi government would probably have been different. Despite stalemate in the relationship for many years, Nawaz is thought to have still enjoyed some trust and confidence across the border in India. The reason is that on all three previous occasions, he, as prime minister tried to mend ties with New Delhi.

Other analysts think the lukewarm felicitation message suggests that there is no desire on part of India to seek any engagement at this stage.

“We should not interpret this message as an olive branch. It’s boilerplate language, quite terse, and similar to what Modi said after Sharif took office as PM in 2022,” said Michael Kugelman, a Washington based South Asian expert.

“There’s little appetite in New Delhi to reach out to Pakistan, and especially in the midst of the Indian election campaign. We can read Modi’s message as an acceptance of Pakistan’s next government and of a desire to keep relations with Pakistan on even keel. Beyond that, I wouldn’t read too much into it,” added Kugelman, South Asia Institute Director at The Wilson Center.

Experts think that a clear picture would emerge after the Indian national elections.

Relations between Pakistan and India have remained standstill for many years. The real dip came in August 2019 when India unilaterally revoked the special status of the disputed Jammu and Kashmir region. Pakistan has since then downgraded the diplomatic ties and suspended the bilateral trade with India.

Islamabad has linked any future talks with New Delhi on India reversing its August 5 actions. There had been efforts in 2021 between the two sides to find a way out of the impasse. Some headway was made when both sides agreed to renew the 2003 ceasefire agreement along the Line of Control (LoC).

But the process could not move forward after the then army chief, General (retd) Qamar Javed Bajwa and the Imran government developed differences. Imran blocked the move to partially restore trade ties, fearing the move would be a political suicide.

Since then there has been hardly any move, seeking rapprochement, though the ceasefire along the LoC remains intact.