War in Ukraine: will it end in 2025?

February 2024 marks the second anniversary of the special military operations that Russia began against Ukraine two years ago. These ongoing special military operations are being perceived by the world in two ways. The first way is based on the western narrative that Russian imperialism is today the greatest threat to the European security and if Russia is not stopped the war will spread beyond Ukraine. The second is the Russian way of looking at what it is doing and why. Russians consider that the special military operations against Ukraine began only after over 15,000 people in Donbas became victims of neo-Nazi regime installed by the western world in Kyiv in 2014. Russia came to the aid of its own people and has now annexed the Donbas territory to the Russian Federation. War’s expansion beyond the annexed Ukrainian borders is a western propaganda and not a Russian war aim. “It is not Russia but the western world that is imperialist,” says President Vladimir Putin.

Western imperialism was pretty much on display when President Emmanuel Macron of France made a provocative comment last week, suggesting a possibility of putting NATO troops in Ukraine. Ironically, Macron’s suggestion was publicly rejected by many NATO member countries including Germany, Poland, Spain, Sweden and Italy. Even NATO chief Jens Stoltenberg told the Associated Press that “the alliance itself had no such plans”. The French-Russian animosity has a history and Macron’s Bonapartism is reflective of the pain that France suffered when Napolean Bonaparte invaded Russia in 1812 with an army of over 600,000 only to return back with less than 50,000 men after experiencing a crushing defeat. This comment by the French President and many other statements by the leadership of the western world are reflective of some significant geopolitical changes that concern the current western approach to the war in Ukraine. But first, what is President Putin thinking?

The Russian President’s state-of-the-nation speech is an annual event in the Kremlin calendar used to highlight his strategies, priorities and plans for the coming days. On Feb 29, Putin made that speech and replied to Macron without naming him by saying that “anyone considering invading Russia should remember the fate of those who previously attempted it. But now the consequences of the interventionist will be much more tragic.” He also made reference to how the US was offering a dialogue to Russia on strategic stability but at the same time was attempting to inflict a strategic defeat on Russia on the battlefield — this he described as hypocritical.

The biggest geopolitical factor that influences the war in Ukraine is the doubt about the continued western support to Ukraine in this war. The US aid package of $60 billion which doesn’t have the approval of Congress and which is seeking an approval of the House of Representatives is predicted to meet its bureaucratic death there as the congressmen don’t seem so keen, and Donald Trump also castes his political shadow not only over the Republican party but also over Mike Johson who, the speaker.

Ukraine is suffering from a shortage of ammunition and manpower. Most Ukrainian military accomplishments are a consequence of the western military aid, especially the long-range weapons. Ukraine demonstrated the utility of these weapons by hitting and drowning Russian battle cruiser Moskva in April 2022. It was hit by two anti-ship missiles launched from the Ukrainian coast. In the second half of 2023, the Russia navy decided to move further to the east after it realised that nothing was left in the Ukraine’s navy that was worth attacking. The other reason was the long-range targeting ability of Ukraine’s land-based anti-ship missiles. So, the withdrawal of the Russia’s fleet in Black Sea further to the east allowed the coastal traffic to move again and Russia, which had backed out of the 2022 agreement of allowing cargo ships carrying the Ukraine grain in the Black Sea, opted not to interfere anymore with the movement of the coastal traffic.

For Russia the earnings that Ukraine makes from the grain export is less important than the poor mouths that this grain feeds in the global south. Russia has taken a consistent position on the destination of the Ukrainian grain — the continent of Europe or the continent of Africa? It is not the lack of military capability that stops Russia from dominating sea warfare as it has sufficient naval presence including five frigates and six modern submarines operating in Black Sea which can easily stop the coastal traffic flow. On the other hand, Ukraine continues to depend on anti-ship missiles from France, the UK and the US and also anti-submarine weapons and detection equipment — all this costs money and continuity of the military aid. The soft underbelly of Ukraine is its continuous reliance on western military aid, it needs fighter jets, long-range missiles and air defence batteries. All the military aid that West provided to Ukraine gave little result as its long-awaited counter-offensive miserably failed. The successes on the battleground are too few to convince the Western world that the military aid they provide to Ukraine is giving the due results — hence the hesitance.

Ukraine was disappointed last year when NATO didn’t yield an invitation to it to join the security organisation. Article 5 doesn’t allow Ukraine to become a NATO member as the West doesn’t want a direct confrontation with Russia. President Joe Biden has already indicated that Ukraine will not be invited to join NATO during the NATO Summit in Washington in July. Doubts over the continuity of Western military aid and doubts on Ukraine ever joining NATO means fewer options for Ukraine. But what does it mean for the future of the war?

The war in Ukraine may end next year. Why? Because we may have the leadership in power that can end this war. There are presidential elections in Russia in the middle of this month. Putin will get his fifth term confirmed as President of Russia. The US also has elections and Trump’s return to White House is being speculated. If that happens, there can be a ceasefire followed by negotiations in 2025 in which Putin will expect Ukraine to cede the territory that he has made part of the Russian Federation in return for accepting Ukraine’s sovereignty and the territorial integrity of what remains part of Ukraine. Till than Russia will continue with its limited attritional offensives. The end of war will not just be because of the military factors but the social, economic and political factors — the very inability of Ukraine to continue fighting without the US and NATO support. If Trump returns, he will not allow this, thus triggering the slide of war on the slope of peace. The war in Ukraine may finally end in 2025.

Published in The Express Tribune, March 3^rd, 2024.

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