Will tainted polls lead to political stability?

ISLAMABAD:

With PPP Chairman Bilawal Bhutto Zardari finally announcing that he will no longer be a candidate for the premiership, and the PTI refusing to talk to PML-N, PPP and MQM-P for government formation at the Centre, all roads now lead to Jati Umra – the residence of the Sharif family.

Despite dust began settling on the political chessboard, uncertainties still remain after Bilawal announces that he is stepping down from the premiership race, but at the same time, he declines to become part of the federal cabinet and promised support for PML-N’s for the post of prime minister.

In return, the PPP chairman has asked for the key constitutional offices, like the Presidency, Senate chairman and National Assembly speaker, among others; leaving nothing to the imagination how he wants to extract full benefits out of PML-N.

This all puts PML-N supremo Nawaz Sharif, who delivered victory speech the other day, to think if he really wants to go ahead and form a ‘minority government’ at the Center and in Punjab as the PPP is in the strong position to form governments in Sindh and Balochistan and the PTI in Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa.

Read more: PDM leaders renew coalition, decide to form unity govt

Nawaz has decided to nominate Shehbaz Sharif as the candidate for the premiership. Given the dire economic and security challenges, question is raised whether it will be a wise decision or a courageous move to take the government in this situation.

The decision to form the federal government at this critical juncture risks burning of more political capital of the PML-N on the heels of its decision to lead a coalition government after ousting Imran Kahn in April 2022.

Also, another question which remains to be answered is that if the elections were “tainted by rigging allegations” and the PML-N, while relying on others, could lead to bringing political and economic stability in the country.

Above all, the split mandate in the polls; the PPP distancing itself from the upcoming government yet seeking key constitutional offices; and the office of the opposition leader in the National Assembly possibly going to PTI-MWM has raised doubts as to how long will the upcoming government last.

Also read: PPP to support PML-N prime minister candidate, says Bilawal

Husain Haqqani, a former Pakistani ambassador, currently a scholar at Hudson Institute in the US and the Anwar Gargash Diplomatic Academy in Abu Dhabi, says that a government of parties other than the largest group is not unknown in parliamentary democracies after an inconclusive election.

The former ambassador says that Pakistan needs a government to deal with critical issues such as negotiations with IMF and other creditors for a new economic bailout.

The PTI has refused to talk to other major parties and its numbers alone are not enough to form the government, says Haqqani, adding that both the PML and the PPP realise that taking the helm of Pakistan amounts to wearing a crown of thorns.

“PML seems willing to do it while others have their eye on the next election,” Haqqani said. “It is clear that Pakistan is in for a period of further uncertainty and instability. But not having a functioning government will make things worse than having a weak government.”

Pakistan Institute of Legislative Development and Transparency (PILDAT) President Ahmed Bilal Mehboob says that each of the three blocks of MNAs – PTI Independents, PML-N and PPP – have the the right to attempt to form government.

Any of these blocks which can command majority has the right to form government. “A party demonstrating greater adjustment has better chance to succeed,” Mehboob beleives.

Eminent scholar Prof Dr Hasan Askari feels that it will be difficult for the PML-N to move ahead in the current circumstances as harmony and consensus on key issues would be the only factors determining if both PML-N and PPP could work together.

“The push and pulls will determine the government’s performance,” Askari said. Commenting on PPPP’s decision to lend support to the PML-N for the premiership and seeking key constitutional offices in return, Askari says: “PML-N can’t afford to hand over all key positions to PPPP. It can’t work this way.”

Some other analyst still believe that the PML-N leadership might convince the PPP leadership in the coming days to become a part of the federal government, adding that the PPP-Parliamentarians President Asif Ali Zardari’s statement that all parties should collectively form the next government.

Zardari’s statement just hours after Bilawal shared his stance, vetoes what his son has said. However, some still insist that the father and son were saying the same thing that PPPP will support the government but maintain a certain distance.