Is a coalition govt in the offing?

An analysis of the election campaign for Thursday’s (today) vote shows the possibility of the a coalition government at the Centre, and in this regard both the Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP) and the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) have already completed preliminary consultation.

The leaderships of two parties have assessed basic questions as to how many seats they will be able to win in the election and how the other parties will fare in the gigantic exercise. Besides, both the parties also had their assessment about the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI)-backed Independent candidates.

These two parties have underscored the importance of the role of independent candidates in the formation of the next federal government, as their internal assessment suggest that based on the election campaign it would be difficult for a single party to win simple majority.

However, any formula for the formation of a coalition government at the Centre will be worked out in the light of the election results. A PML-N source told The Express Tribune, that after the elections, the party will be is in a position to form the federal government they were not sure about simple majority.

The source added that the party thought that if there were lesser seats than expected, the government could be formed with the cooperation of the Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam (JUI), Istehkam-e-Pakistan Party (IPP), Muttahida Qaumi Movement (MQM) and other like-minded parties and independents.

If necessary, the same formula, which was used to form a Pakistan Democratic Movement (PDM)-led coalition government in 2022, could be used this time, the source said. In the light of the political situation, the PML-N can discuss the matter of government formation with the PPP.

Continuing, the sources said, Nawaz Sharif was the PML-N’s candidate for the post of prime minister. However, keeping in mind the emerging political situation or other issues, if arose, the name of Shahbaz Sharif could be considered for the premiership. However, the final decision will be taken by Nawaz.

On the other hand, PPP sources said that Bilawal Bhutto Zardari is the party’s candidate for prime ministership. They added that after evaluating the election results, the strategy for the government formation would be worked out.

According to these sources, PPP Co-Chairman Asif Ali Zardari will decide the matters related to the government formation, while the party chief Bilawal Bhutto Zardari will consult and take the like-minded parties. The PPP would also try to court successful independent candidates into its camp.

PTI sources claim that they would be successful in the National Assembly contests. Senior political analyst Zia Abbas said that the PML-N was likely to get most of seats in the election and it might form the government with the cooperation of the like-minded parties and independents.

Besides, Abbas continued, the PPP will succeed in forming the government in Sindh and the PML-N and the IPP and others would join ranks to form the government in Punjab. However, Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa (K-P) and Balochistan would see coalition governments.

PTI sources claim that they would be more successful in the contests for the National Assembly but Abbas said he did not see any improvement in the political situation of the PTI, adding that the party would get less number of seats.

According to Abbas, the first priority of the next federal government would be the revival of economy, in which it would have the full cooperation of the military leadership. It is apparent that the establishment wanted to strengthen democracy and the parliamentary system in the country.