Balochistan preps for epic electoral Battle Royale

In just a few days, albeit after much ado, the populace of Balochistan will have their say on who gets to represent them in the provincial and National Assembly.

Despite the pervasive terrorism threat in the province, political parties from various backgrounds, including religious, Baloch, and Pashtun nationalist factions, are actively engaging in the electoral process and are all set for the February 8th showdown.

The province, encompassing a vast geographical area, has witnessed record-breaking participation this time around with 1,729 candidates contesting for 51 Balochistan Assembly seats and 16 National Assembly seats.

This surge in candidates indicates a competitive electoral environment, highlighting the fervour and determination of political entities to secure victory in the upcoming general election and shape the political landscape of Balochistan.

Candidates galore in Quetta

In contrast to previous elections where competition for most National Assembly and provincial assembly seats involved only 2 to 3 candidates each, this time, all 9 provincial assembly seats in Quetta city boast more than 40 candidates each. Notably, in the constituency known as PB-43 Quetta, formerly referred to as PB-1, a staggering 50 candidates are vigorously vying for victory, which is a departure from the earlier dominance between Senator Saeed Ahmed Hashmi, founder of the Balochistan Awami Party (BAP), and Pakistan People’s Party’s (PPP) Shafeeq Ahmed Khan, on the seat.

Multiple former chief ministers of Balochistan contesting elections

Currently, eight former chief ministers of Balochistan including Nawab Muhammad Aslam Raisani, Nawab Sanaullah Zehri, Mir Quddus Bizenjo, Jam Kamal Khan, Dr Abdul Malik Baloch, Mir Jan Muhammad Jamali, and Sardar Saleh Bhootani are contesting elections on provincial and national assembly seats from the province.

Be that as it may, political analysts are of the view that apart from Sardar Saleh Bhootani, who has served as the caretaker chief minister of the province, there seems to be no easy win for all the other former chief ministers of Balochistan, as they are facing tough competition in their respective constituencies.

Electables: Kingmakers or not?

Earlier during campaign season PPP’s Chairman Bilawal Bhutto Zardari spent 3 days in Quetta and met with party supporters and leaders; and also addressed supporters in Khuzdar. Furthermore, the PPP Chairman’s father, former president, Asif Ali Zardari, also visited Turbat and addressed party supporters.

And it seems efforts of both decision makers of the PPP bore fruit as they succeeded in gaining the support of influential electables from Balochistan, including Sardar Sarfaraz Domki, Nawab Sanaullah Zehri, Mir Quddus Bizenjo, and former caretaker federal minister, Sarfaraz Bugti.

In stark contrast with the PPP’s campaigning, the Pakistan Muslim League Nawaz (PML-N) has not focused as much on Balochistan. This is evidenced by the fact that the party’s supremo Nawaz Sharif, along with former prime minister Shahbaz Sharif, and the party’s senior vice president Maryam Nawaz, only visited Quetta once during the campaign cycle and held meetings with a handful of electables.

However, their efforts seemed to have worked as well as a significant number of electables from the province joined the PML-N after parting ways from BAP, despite being provincial ministers in the former BAP-led provincial government.

Nevertheless, it is pertinent to mention that analysts expect that the PPP’s electables are in a stronger position compared to their political rivals PML-N.

Read: Balochistan govt bans public meetings, electoral gatherings in Quetta

JUI-F and PKMAP cozying up

While only Feb 8 will tell if electables win at all whether it be for the PPP or the PML-N, two electoral heavyweights in the province are all set to take on the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf in Quetta and Pishin.

Maulana Fazl ur Rehman, Chief of the Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam-Fazl (JUI-F) will face off against former governor of Balochistan, the PTI’s Syed Zahoor Agha; whereas Mahmood Khan Achakzai, Chief of the Pashtoonkhwah Milli Awami Party (PkMAP), will go head-to-head against the PTI’s General Secretary for Balochistan, Salar Khan.

It is pertinent to mention that the PKMAP’s Chief as a goodwill gesture, has withdrawn from NA-265 Pishin and is backing the JUI-F Chief. As a reciprocal, the JUI F, withdrew its candidate Mufti Rozi Khan in support of Mehmood Khan Achakzai on NA-263 Quetta City. It is also worthwhile mentioning that the PKMAP was expecting that the JUI-F would withdraw its candidate Salahuddin Ayub on NA-266 to ensure the victory of Mehmood Khan Achakzai based on cordial relations between the JUI-F and PKMAP’s Chief, and an electoral alliance was expected between the JUI-F and PKMAP in the Pashtoon-dominated areas of Balochistan but that did not happen.

Interesting contests all around

Apart from the JUI-F and PKMAP, the Balochistan National Party (BNP) is also vying for key seats in the province. The BNP’s Chief Sardar Akhtar Jan Mengal is contesting elections on 2 national assembly seats from Khuzdar and Quetta and 1 provincial assembly seat from his native town Wadh.

It is worth recalling that the nomination papers of the BNP Chief were initially rejected by the Returning Officers for holding an Iqama. However, the election tribunal of the Balochistan High Court (BHC) later allowed Sardar Akhtar Jan Mengal to contest elections. Now the BNP Chief is going to face Mir Shafique Rehman Mengal of the Jhalawan Panel on the provincial assembly seat from Wadh and Nawabzada Jamal Raisani of the PPP on NA-264 Quetta.

Another Balochistan electoral heavyweight, Chairman Senate Sadiq Sanjrani, is contesting elections on PB-32 from Dalbandin Chaghi. Sadiq Sanjrani is all set to face Mir Arif Jan Muhammad Hassani of PPP and Sakhi Amanullah Notezai of the JUI-F; and political analysts expect that the Chairman Senate will face a tough contest.

Similarly, Jam Kamal Khan, the former chief minister of the province, is also facing tough competition from his political rival Wadera Hussain Jamot in Lasbela, who is a PPP candidate and is backed by the influential Bhootani brothers.

Balochistan anticipating yet another coalition government

Be that as it may, political observers expect that Balochistan, which has consistently had a coalition government due to the intricate political landscape preventing any single party from securing a majority in the province since its establishment as a province in the 1970s, will have yet another coalition government.

However, analysts are of the view that as the province grapples with its distinctive sociopolitical dynamics, the formation of coalition governments remains a pragmatic response to accommodate the diverse interests and perspectives that characterise the political landscape of Balochistan.

And once the anticipated coalition government takes charge, political analysts expect that one of former federal caretaker minister for interior, Sarfaraz Bugti, Dr Abdul Malik Baloch, Nawabzada Gazeen Marri, Nawab Muhammad Aslam Raisani, Mir Sadiq Sanjrani, and Jam Kamal Khan, will be considered for chief ministerial slot of the Balochistan.

Campaign season marred with terrorism

While only time will tell who eventually gets to be Chief Minister of the province, it is pertinent to mention that Balochistan’s electoral campaign cycle was marred with terrorism. Over a dozen bomb explosions targeting election campaign offices and candidates of political parties temporarily impacted the momentum in Balochistan, which might affect election day turnout as well.

Former provincial president of the PPP, Ali Madad Jattak, former provincial minister, Mir Zahoor Buledi, Agha Shakeel Durrani, and Mir Nooruddin Nowsherwani's residences and election campaign offices were targeted during the campaign cycle; consequently, around 2 dozen people were injured and 8 died.

Given this looming security threat, the Balochistan government has taken several security measures to ensure fair and peaceful elections. Of the 18 districts in Balochistan, 5,067 polling stations are slated for February 8th, with 2,055 out of these identified as highly sensitive, 2,180 as sensitive, and 832 as normal. Furthermore, the provincial government has also decided to install over 8,000 CCTV cameras outside all sensitive polling stations in the province.