Electoral crown jewel Punjab ready for scintillating contests

In just over a week, registered voters of the country’s most populous province will head to the ballot box to vote for candidates from their respective constituencies; and as always whosoever gets a majority in Punjab, will be in pole position to form a government in the Centre.

The Pakistan Muslim League Nawaz (PML-N), Pakistan People’s Party (PPP), Jamaat-e-Islami (JI), Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam, Tehreek-e-Labbaik Pakistan (TLP) Istehkam-e-Pakistan Party (IPP), Pakistan Muslim League Quaid (PML-Q), and the independent candidates of the now symbol-less Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI), will step into electoral battle against each other for the 141 seats of the National Assembly from the province and 297 seats in the Punjab Assembly.

However, political analysts expect that on most seats up for grabs in the province, a resurgent PML-N and a mired in legal controversies PTI, will go head-to-head, despite the latter being stripped of its famous cricket bat symbol and most of its senior leadership presently incarcerated.

Moreover, it is also expected that the PPP, which is looking to make a comeback in Punjab, will put up a tough fight; especially since the party’s Chairman, Bilawal Bhutto Zardari, is contesting from the provincial capital, Lahore.

Similarly, political analysts observe that the newly formed IPP, led by Jahangir Khan Tareen, might be able to spring a few surprises, given the pre-electoral alliances it has made with the PML-N.

Be that as it may, there are some constituencies that political observers have pinned as exciting contests. For instance, NA-130, where the PML-N’s supremo and prime ministership hopeful, Mian Nawaz Sharif, will take on the PTI’s Yasmin Rashid, TLP’s Muhammad Khurram Riaz, and JI’s Khaleeq Ahmed Butt. The odds seem to be in the PML-N’s Quaid’s favour, as his party has won this constituency in 2013 and 2018; and Sharif’s strongest opponent Rashid, is behind bars for her alleged involvement in the May 9th protests.

Another interesting matchup being expected is in NA-117 of Lahore, where the PML-N and IPP’s unanimous candidate, Aleem Khan, who happens to be the IPP’s President, will face PTI’s Ijaz Buttar, TLP’s Saif-ur-Rehman, and JI’s Jahangir Ahmed. It is worthwhile to mention that the PML-N has been successful in this constituency in the past and with their backing, IPP’s Khan is considered a strong candidate.

However, perhaps one of the most followed constituencies in Lahore will be NA-127, as the PPP Chairman Zardari, will go up against Atta Tarrar of the PML-N and Zaheer Abbas Khokhar of the PTI.

While it remains to be seen whether Zardari will be able to pull off a win, his move to contest from the constituency has been regarded as a bold one given the fact that the PML-N won the constituency back-to-back in the 2013 and 2018 general elections.

Another key Lahore constituency is NA-128. Aun Chaudhry of the IPP, who is the unanimous candidate of his party and the PML-N will take on current PTI heavyweight candidate Salman Akram Raja and JI’s Liaqat Baloch. In the 2013 and 2018 general elections, PTI’s Shafqat Mehmood won from this constituency, however this time around the party has chosen to field Raja as their candidate. Analysts expect that Raja will give a tough time to his electoral opponents.

Similarly, a good electoral battle is also being expected in NA-119 of Lahore, where the PML-N's Senior Vice President and daughter of the party’s supremo, Maryam Nawaz, will go head-to-head against PPP’s Shahzad Farooq and two PTI backed candidates, Sanam Javaid and Mian Shahzad Farooq. It is pertinent to mention that Javaid is presently incarcerated for her alleged involvement in the May 9th protests and was only recently allowed by the Supreme Court to contest elections, therefore the PTI will have to fight hard in this constituency if they wish to break Nawaz’s vote bank.

Likewise, PTI backed Muhammad Khan Mehndi and Alia Hamza, will also face a tough electoral opponent in Hamza Shahbaz Sharif, former chief minister of Punjab, when they go head-to-head in NA-118.

Read: South Punjab electoral scene dominated by elite

Interesting matchups are also expected in two of the province’s apparently most sought after constituencies, NA-120 and NA-129. A total of 27 candidates are contesting from NA-120 and 19 from NA-129. In NA-120, a tough contest is expected between the PML-N Ayaz Sadiq and PPP’s Munir Khan. Whereas, in NA-129, the PML-N’s Hafiz Nauman, PTI backed Mian Muhammad Azhar and Ijaz Buttar, JI’s Jahangir Ahmed, and TLP’s Saif-ur-Rehman will go head-to-head to see who get to represent the populace of NA-129 in the National Assembly.

In the southern part of Punjab, PPP's Yusuf Raza Gilani, PML-N's Ahmed Hussain Dhed, and PTI's Barrister Taimur Malik will compete in NA-148 in Multan. Gilani and Sikandar Hayat Bosan have won consistently from this constituency but in the 2013 general election, Dhed won this seat on a PTI ticket. Currently, Dhed is with the PML-N and is supported by Bosan, therefore a close contest is expected in the constituency.

A similarly exciting contest is also expected in NA-149 of Multan, where Malik Amir Dogar of the PTI and Tareen, who is the founder and Patron-in-Chief of the IPP, will face-off. Moreover, senior politician Makhdoom Javed Hashmi, who has been associated with both the PML-N and the PTI in the past, is also contesting in the constituency as an independent candidate.

Roughly about 80 kilometres from Multan, in Vehari, the PTI has given its ticket to Ayesha Nazir Jutt for the NA-156 seat, where she will compete against Chaudhry Nazir Ahmed of the PML-N. As per some political observers both candidates have a good track record in the constituency and the seat could go either way after a tough electoral fight.

Whereas, in NA-185 Dera Ghazi Khan, the PTI has fielded former minister for climate change, Zartaj Gul, who will face-off against PPP’s Sardar Dost Muhammad Khosa, TLP’s Zakaullah, and JI’s Usman Farooq. Interestingly, the PML-N has not fielded any candidate from the constituency, therefore political observers expect that Gul will be able to carve out a win for her party.

Far away from the south of Punjab, close to Islamabad, in NA-55 of Rawalpindi, the PTI has given its ticket to Raja Basharat, who will compete against the Awami Muslim League’s (AML) Sheikh Rashid and PML-N’s Malik Abrar Ahmed. Both Basharat and Ahmed will face a tough electoral opponent in Rashid, who has been successful from this constituency in the past.

Commenting on the electoral contests, political analyst Hasan Askari, in a conversation with The Express Tribune, was of the view that PML-N stood a better chance than the rest of its opponents. “The central leaders of the PTI, including its founding chairman, Imran Khan, are in jail and some were not even allowed to contest elections. Whereas, the PPP has not covered any significant ground in the province yet,” Askari elaborated.

“Moreover, the PML-N’s entire support base is in Punjab. Coupled with the fact that its main rival, the PTI, is engulfed in a myriad of legal crises, this makes the PML-N’s position stronger,” the political analyst added.

Askari also observed that in most of the constituencies, the PTI’s candidates were weak compared to those of the PML-N. “This is due to the fact that many leaders of the PTI left the party after the May 9th protests and others joined the IPP. Therefore, the party had to issue tickets to individuals who are not well known and the populace might find it hard to trust them enough to vote for them,” he explained.

When asked about the PPP’s revival in Punjab, Askari opined that the PPP was trying its best to make its Chairman win in Lahore. “However, the PPP will soon find out that in Punjab, especially Lahore, they do not have the support that they used to have in the past,” predicted Askari while talking to The Express Tribune.

While Professor Dr Iram Khalid, Chairperson of the Political Science Department at the Punjab University, did not comment on which party would fare better in the electoral contests in the province, she emphasised the importance of political parties mobilising people and ensuring their participation in elections.

Dr Khalid was of the view that people coming out in large numbers to vote would be a win for democracy in the country. “It would also be a win for democracy if the Election Commission of Pakistan fulfils its responsibility of conducting the general elections with the utmost fairness and transparency,” added Dr Khalid while talking to The Express Tribune.