Karachi all set for political thriller

The focus of electoral politics in Sindh has always been anti-Pakistan People's Party (PPP) political parties versus the Pakistan People’s Party; and with a general elections just days away now, the situation remains the same, with Karachi being the crown jewel.

On Feb 8, the PPP will step into the electoral battle for 168 seats of the Sindh Assembly, against the Grand Democratic Alliance (GDA) led by Pir Pagara, Muttahida Qaumi Movement (MQM), Jamaat-e-Islami (JI), Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI), Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N), Tehreek-e-Labbaik Pakistan (TLP) and the Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam Fazl (JUI-F).

And while it remains to be seen whether the PPP will be able to retain its political stronghold over Sindh, and its provincial capital, Karachi, Dr Kamran Khan, assistant professor in the Department of Political Science at the University of Karachi believes that no party will emerge as a majority party in the city this time. “The MQM has a good chance of winning a large number of seats, perhaps even more than they won in 2018. Similarly, JI will also give the PPP a tough time,” predicted Dr Khan, further adding that the PTI might not be able to win much owing to the party’s legal troubles.

Nawab Qureshi, a senior journalist and political analyst, who closely monitor’s Karachi’s politics, agrees. “The outcome of this general elections in Sindh, Karachi in particular, will be vastly different from the outcome of the last three general elections,” remarked Qureshi.

“The political field in Karachi looks empty at the moment because Karachi has now become a problem area and no one seems to have any solutions for its problems,” the senior journalist elaborated.

Reiterating Dr Khan’s prediction, Qureshi said that there would be a split in the results of the general elections in the province and that no party would be able to get the majority of seats.

However, Muneer Uddin, a senior journalist covering politics, feels that PPP has an edge over its political rivals on some seats, with regards to Karachi. “While the PPP, PML-N, and PTI will compete for the provincial assembly seats in Malir, but given the current political situation and past results, it is reasonable to assume that PPP will win these seats,” he observed.

“The PPP also holds a good position in the provincial assembly seats located in the Kemari district. However, the religious vote bank can influence these seats,” the journalist further added.

Adding on to the observations of Muneer Uddin, vis-a-vis Karachi, senior journalist and political analyst, Saeed Jan Baloch, said that there would be interesting contests on PS 106, 107, 108, 109, and 110 seats of the provincial assembly of Karachi’s District South. “The JI and the PPP may face off for the 106 and 107 seats in Lyari. However, an independent Shakur Shad group is also active in the electoral process in Lyari. There will also be an intriguing competition on PS-110 (Clifton) seat,” he informed.

As far as District East is concerned, senior analyst Zia Abbas was of the view that important contests for the provincial assembly seats in the East District would take place on PS 105, where PPP leader Saeed Ghani and MQM, GDA alliance candidate Irfanullah Marwat will go head-to-head. “Competition is also expected between MQM, JI, PML-N, PTI, and other parties between PS 99 to PS 103 seats in the East.

There will be competition between MQM, PPP, TLP, JI, and other parties on various provincial seats of Korangi District from PS 92 to PS 96,” explained Abbas.

Nail-biter election all over Sindh

Nevertheless, exciting electoral contests are not confined to the provincial capital only. For instance, on the NA 194 and NA 196 seats of Larkana Division, PPP’s Chairman Bilawal Bhutto Zardari will go head-to-head on one seat against Rashid Mehmood Soomro, the provincial head of JUI-F, and his brother Nasir Mahmood Soomro, on the other seat.

Whereas, their brother Maulana Tahir Mehmood Soomro, will contest against former president Asif Ali Zardari's sister Faryal Talpur from Larkana’s provincial constituency, PS 10. Political analysts suggest that JUI-F has a significant vote bank in these three constituencies and the PPP should expect tough competition in all the three constituencies.

An intriguing matchup is also expected in Larkana’s provincial constituencies PS 11 and PS 12, where the GDA has nominated Kazim Ali Abbasi against PPP's Jameel Ahmed Soomro in one constituency; and his brother Moazzam Ali Abbasi has been nominated in the other constituency. It is pertinent to mention that Moazzam Ali Abbasi won the PS 11 constituency against the candidate of the PPP in the previous general election.

Read: Karachi has ‘spoken’ in MQM-P’s favour: Siddiqui

Furthermore, the JUI-F has given the party ticket to Maulana Mohammad Shah against the PPP’s senior leader Syed Khursheed Shah for the National Assembly constituency of NA 201 from Sukkur, which is also set to be an exciting matchup. Likewise, another important constituency is NA 207 of Shaheed Benazirabad district, from which PPP leader and former President Asif Ali Zardari is contesting against the PTI’s Sardar Sher Muhammad Rind.

A tough contest is also expected in the National Assembly’s constituency NA 216 of Matiari District where PML-N’s Sindh President Bashir Ahmad Memon is contesting against PPP’s candidate Makhdoom Jameel-ul-Zaman. If Memon were to carve out a win, it would give the PML-N a much needed revival in Sindh.

Another key National Assembly constituency is NA 190 of Jacobabad district, where former governor of Sindh, Muhammad Mian Soomro is contesting against PPP’s senior leader Ejaz Jakhrani. Political analysts have termed the PPP candidate’s position as weak due to differences within the Jakhrani family, and Muhammad Mian Soomro stands to benefit.

Be that as it may, according to Abdul Majeed Chandio, former dean of the Department of Social Sciences at Shah Abdul Latif University, Khairpur, predicted that the PPP would be successful in Sindh once again. “The electoral scenario in our country becomes clear before the elections are held and it is certain that the PPP will continue its winning streak in Sindh.”

Politics of electables

Part of the reason why the PPP might be able to retain Sindh is due to its electables, who hail from influential families, and will have a major say in how the election pans out for the party. However, many do not agree with the politics of electables. Senior journalist and analyst, Qazi Asif happens to be one of those people.

Asif while talking to the Express Tribune remarked that the political system has suffered significantly due to the strengthening of family or community politics. “This is the reason why all political parties including the PPP prefer candidates from such influential families to win elections,” asserted Asif.

Concurring with Asif, senior journalist and political analyst, Mumtaz Bukhari, said that political families in Sindh have strengthened themselves by joining ruling parties like the PPP and their influence in Sindh’s various districts like Ghotki, Shikarpur, Kashmore, and Jacobabad is quite strong.

Fierce opponents

Electables or not, the PPP’s electoral rivals are ready to take the party head on. MQM’s central leader Amin-ul-Haq, in a conversation with the Express Tribune, claimed that the MQM can get 16 seats in the National Assembly and 38 seats in the Sindh Assembly from Karachi. “We have a firm strategy in place in this regard,” Amin asserted.

JI’s Karachi Ameer, Hafiz Naeem-ur-Rehman, also made similar claims. “Everyone realises that only JI can solve Karachi’s problems. We will try to cash in on that sentiment and try to get a majority,” he said.
As for the PTI, which won a significant number of seats in the province in the last general election, the campaign season might not have been smooth sailing but the party is still hoping to spring a surprise come election day. “Even though the PTI has not been giving a level playing field, because of our strategy our voters will come out on February 8th en masse,” a spokesperson of the party assured.

Just like the PTI, the PML-N seems to be similarly confident of springing a surprise. In a conversation with the Express Tribune, PML-N’s leader Nehal Hashmi said that the party was aiming to get more than 4 seats in the National Assembly from Sindh and 10 seats in the provincial assembly from Karachi.

However, the PPP’s Karachi President Saeed Ghani feels that his party’s electoral opponents are all talk and no show. “Come election day, arrows will rain down all over the province. We are in a comfortable position to retain control of Sindh,” claimed Ghani while talking to the Express Tribune.