Iran attack: blessing in disguise for Pakistan?

It was almost midnight on January 16 when social media was bombarded with posts about Iranian missile and drone strikes inside Pakistan. The initial source of the news was Iranian state media, though it later deleted the post. I was skeptical that the news was true. Why? Because the day Iran breached Pakistan’s air space, the Iranian Foreign Minister met the Pakistani Prime Minister on the sidelines of the World Economic Forum (WEF) in Davos; and two days prior, an aide of the Iranian President was in Islamabad; and a day earlier Pakistan and Iranian navies had conducted joint drills in the Strait of hormuz. I texted a senior Pakistani official, who deals with the region, about the speculations. I was expecting the official would resolutely rebut the news. But he confirmed the Iranian strikes. An hour later, the Foreign Office issued a statement, confirming Iran violated Pakistan’s airspace. There were claims and counter-claims. Iran claimed it struck two terrorist hideouts in Pangour district of Balochistan. The target, according to Iran, was Jaish al-Adl, a militant outfit operating from Iran’s Sistan-Baluchestan province. But Pakistan contested the claims. It said strikes killed two innocent children and injured 3 girls.

Pakistan and Iran may have had security issues along the border but a very few in Pakistan were expecting Iran to resort to such a unilateral action. The background discussions with relevant officials suggested that Islamabad thought Tehran might come with an explanation and offer an apology. Had Iran done that, Pakistan would not have resorted to counter-attack. But when Iran did not respond as per the expectations, Islamabad in a first step decided to recall its envoy from Tehran and asked the Iranian ambassador to stay back who was already in his country. The move was taken in the hope that Tehran would realise its ‘mistake’ and get the message that Pakistan had not taken this transgression lightly. But the Iranian government was unmoved. Instead, Iranian officials started boasting about its strikes inside Pakistan. That was when Pakistan decided to hit back.

It was clear from the readout of the Foreign Office that while Pakistan did conduct retaliatory strikes it had no intention to escalate the situation further. The ball was in Iran’s court. By the time Pakistan retaliated, certain international players got involved to defuse the tension. China, Russia and on top of it Turkey worked overtly and covertly to prevent further escalation. Iran too realised that there was no point in escalating the matter. Soon the two countries established contacts to lower the tensions. Foreign Ministers of the two countries spoke by phone and agreed to restore the diplomatic ties.

The dramatic turn of events in 24 hours may serve as a template for other countries on how to defuse tensions. The two countries pulled back from the brink merely within 24 hours. The question is: what did Iran gain out of those strikes? Prior to such strikes, Iran certainly enjoyed great goodwill among the Pakistanis. Many Pakistanis appreciated Iran’s clear stance on Israel at a time when other Muslim countries have taken a more nuanced position. Pakistan has always tried to maintain a delicate balance in its ties with Iran and the west and Arab countries. Islamabad in the past resisted pressure from those countries to act against Tehran.

By launching missile strikes, Iran sent a wrong message to Pakistan. On the contrary, Pakistan has much to gain from this crisis. It has once again established that even if a friendly country ties to breach its sovereignty, it will be given a befitting response. It has sent a message to other neighbours too, particularly India, that if it is thinking of any misadventure ahead of the general elections then it is mistaken. Also, the handling of the crisis has helped the security establishment restore its public image in the wake of its tussle with a political party. No matter what was the ultimate objective of Iran, the reality is that its misadventure proved a blessing in disguise for Pakistan!

Published in The Express Tribune, January 22^nd, 2024.

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