Pakistan, politics, perils and prospects

Quaid's disarming logic was that democracy is only system that empowers ‘all’ — minority as well as majority

At senior positions one is always confronted with the dilemma of decision-making (DM), to pick the right option from a range of options presented. Although decision-making as an art and science is well taught in the military staff colleges in the context of MDMP (Military Decision-Making Process) and is further refined through the study of Operational Analysis (OA) or the British Operational Art, DM remains a crucial dilemma. The acuteness of the dilemma is directly proportional to the sensitivity of the matter under deliberation. In one’s experience, there are two operative norms to help through such decision-making paradoxes. One, picking the option with ‘greater good for the greater numbers’; and two, the option being more in line with principles, norms and truism.

Elections present such a dilemma. If the Senate resolution on January 5, 2024 and its repeat, to postpone the February 8 General Elections is any guide, people at the helm are ‘on the horns of a dilemma’… to phrase another military dictum. There are strong reasons to hold elections or otherwise. My two cents are an opinion and open to criticism and disagreement. One keeps grappling with questions like, the aim and purpose of elections, the implications of electioneering, the state capture of the same entrenched ashhrafiyya regaining the reins of power through elections, transparency and representative nature of elections, the very essence of democracy and its temperamental compatibility with our political culture, etc.

But first, why elections. One remembers, as a young officer listening to an eminent Quaid-e-Azam University professor in 1990s eulogising democracy in his address to the GHQ officers. His disarming logic was that democracy is the only system that empowers ‘all’ — minority as well as majority. Everyone has representation, a voice and a vote. Years later during course work in an American University, one learnt that in ethnically polarised societies (like ours), democracy ultimately becomes the ‘oligarchy’ of major ethnic group.

Our journey towards this cherished goal has been tumultuous, uneven, uncertain and least productive — to put it mildly. In the present politico-geographic delineation of Pakistan, Punjab will always have outsized influence. Until we have more manageable administrative units (or provinces), smaller federating units would always feel deprivation — actual or perceived. And repeated democratic exercises would actually exacerbate such privation.

Second, democratic bandwagon runs smoothly when its essentials are in place, and that means an educated electorate; relatively homogenous societal make-up; a population not beholden to biradari, caste, religious, sectarian and/or ethnic interests; leaders wanting to serve and not loot and plunder; politicians with some schooling and grooming other than rhetorical bluster (promising moon during electioneering and failing abysmally in deliverance); political leaders not excelling in unneeded traits and credentials like crime, smuggling, clash of interests…or actually themselves representing interests (IPPs, land and sugar mafias, crime patronage, etc); and political parties more representative and not mere dynastic fiefs.

Most candidates were non-filers of tax returns during the recent paper submissions, making one wonder — comically and ironically — at the source of atrocious wealth that is needed to contest elections. Sadly, our political culture is far removed from democratic norms and standards.

Third, elections in Pakistan in general and under the present environs in particular are divisive, polarizing and oblivious to the national interests. The exercise also sets poor examples in civility, marred by horse-trading, vote-purchasing and all sorts of pressures on the electorate through brazen threats, enforced voting and pre/after-poll rigging of all kinds. The atmosphere is poisonous, threatening economic stability. The exercise costs prohibitively large expense from an impoverished national exchequer. And ironically the same faces in different or changed political parties surface again and again because they strategise re-election, which is perfected as an art.

Fourth, post-election government formation is weak, made through silly compromises and is reflective of institutional interests and biases. Performance of elected governments is even more abysmal with no interest by elected representative — except a miniscule — is serious legislation, informed debate and due diligence. The vacuum left is sadly filled by ‘other’ forces and the rest, as they say, is history.

Let’s look at the main contenders for the February contest. All are tainted with no consensus on anyone. PML-N is led by convicts, was tried thrice, is culturally a party of leaders with the House of Sharif calling the shots. Steeped in sleaze and corruption, their performance under wonder leader, Shehbaz Sharif, in the 15 months recently was appalling, to say the least. In an ill-intentioned power grab in 2022 (ostensibly to clear out NAB cases), the party expended its scarce political capital. Otherwise, why an astute political party would agree to run an almost bankrupt country in the hands of a populous demagogue, who was destined to meet his own electoral death.

PPP undoubtedly has more cerebral power than any other party, but it is also tainted for their alliance with PDM recently, ostensibly for Asif Zardari to see relaxation in cases against him, and Bilawal to be launched at the federal level. One, however, grudgingly admires PPP leadership, who demonstrated pro-Pakistan credentials at critical junctures (Pakistan khapay); never clash with institutions; and are savvier of Pakistan’s political culture, rather than simply being sleepy-eyed idealists. Plus, PPP has Sindh, especially its rural areas, undisputedly to itself.

PTI shot itself in both feet on 9^th May and is still busy churning out anti-establishment (particularly anti-Army and anti-General officer cadre) propaganda through its IT brigade, youthful cadre on social media. Some apparently saner heads even among military veterans consider 9^th May as insider job. Ridiculous, as Army had many heads rolling at the senior levels. Facilitated to power by the powers-that-be, nurtured and guided, but ultimately falling out in a dirty personality clash with its once benefactors. PTI’s cult-like following still makes it a popular party. However, there are serious questions about its governance capability, inexperience, nationalist outlook and lack of focus on performance and chest-thumping to eradicate corruption.

Other contenders like religious and nationalist parties have no numbers to be counted at the national level. So, the national scene has no palatable options. If…and I say if elections are to be held, we should expect an expanded PDM with a truncated opposition. On a personal note, a national-unity government (since we passed the stage of technocrats) should be the preferred outcome to usher in stability that is key to economic development.

Published in The Express Tribune, January 18^th, 2024.

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