Realistic expectations about the future

There seems to be little enthusiasm among the people about the national elections although these are less than a month away. It is unfortunate, but what else one would expect when they know what is the likely outcome. With PTI in disarray and hardly any new faces in the forefront in other major or minor parties, apart from a few, and possibility of manipulations very likely, there is scant hope for a better tomorrow.

Moreover, two of our provinces, Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan, are facing serious security threats and several poll delay resolutions have landed in the Senate that could deter people from voting and raising genuine doubts regarding the fidelity of the voting process. The sharp split and rancor between major political parties, especially the PML-N and the PTI, needs to be addressed otherwise it would remain a major drag on the country. Their deep polarisation has the potential of seriously dividing the bureaucracy on political grounds that could affect the society as a whole.

The economy too which is already very weak and dependent on foreign assistance could suffer more if the incoming leadership is unable to restore political stability and address acute internal and external security threats.

But this does not mean we give up hope. Pakistan has to change for the better and it is for the people to defy and overcome the multiple impediments the country is facing. The elections provide that opportunity and it becomes important we vote for that party and those politicians who are relatively better positioned and have the ability to address the political turmoil and economic and serious security challenges facing the country. As simple as it may sound many voters in Pakistan as in certain other nascent democracies are dictated by influential local politicians in their voting preferences and less by their own pressing problems that they face in daily life. Although, the attitude of people is changing fast and the day is not far when more and more people will be voting for the party and candidates whom they perceive pursuing policies that are good for the people at large. Voters are worried about galloping inflation and soaring prices of food and items of everyday use. This phenomenon was witnessed in certain constituencies during previous elections as well. Encouraging voters to prefer younger and more dedicated politicians is important for most of the older ones have been tried and the results are there to see. It is the younger generation of leaders who are more adept to the rapidly changing technological developments. They are also more inclined to favour an open society which should contribute to strengthening democracy.

Pakistani women cannot continue to remain in the background, but for this the political parties should include a fair number of them in the parliament and give them a significant share in governance. Encouraging and adding additional education facilities for girls should be a high priority for the incoming provincial governments. Plight of women in the former tribal belt and Balochistan has to be specially addressed for perhaps they are the worst victims of discrimination. None amongst the major parties have in the past ensured or pursued policies that would significantly focus on the well-being of our women — be it at workplace or at home.

A more fundamental problem that Pakistan has faced and has affected its democratic credentials is the warped civil-military relations. The dominance of the military and the sharing of power diffuses accountability and seriously weakens democracy. There has never been a serious debate during the election campaign in the past as to how to deal with this rather sensitive but an important subject. A gradual transformation of power to where it should reside in accordance with the Constitution has to be worked out. The expectation is that the country’s responsible political and military leadership in the larger interest of the country would be addressing the problem.

Two major projects of CPEC — ML Railway extension and Gwadar port’s further development — have to be given the attention these deserve.

The incoming government will have to make a serious attempt to improve the state of the economy and reduce dependence on foreign loans and IMF. Most likely this would be the government’s foremost challenge. In the past civil and military governments have not given economy and governance the position it deserves and this has to change. Apart from making the country heavily dependent on foreign assistance and compromising its sovereignty it makes the society prone to unrest and even extremism. Whereas an improved economic situation — in which the gross domestic product (GDP) is rising steadily each year and the government is collecting more taxes and improving its revenue — will reverse the declining confidence in Pakistan’s governance.

Pakistan’s involvement in the civil war in Afghanistan has been one of the major factors in giving rise to militancy. The patronising of TTP leadership by the Afghan Taliban government and allowing them to operate freely in Afghanistan is posing a serious threat to Pakistan. Hardly a day passes when there are no casualties in areas close to the Afghan border. It is an unfriendly policy and against accepted norms of behaviour particularly by the Afghan government that has benefited considerably by the consistent support that Pakistan has given over the years. Pakistan requires an uncompromising reassertion of state power in dealing with the present threat from TTP and other militant groups arising from within the country or across the Afghan border.

Relations with India have remained frozen and it is to be seen if PM Modi would revisit his policy after the elections in both countries.

India’s booming economy has given a huge boost to its political and strategic stature.

Widening of income gaps within a region has serious geopolitical implications for Pakistan. Meagre or shrinking national budgets affect defence budgets and increase insecurity. With militancy on the rise, development and economic progress suffers, giving rise to a vicious cycle — a situation that Pakistan is facing presently.

Tackling these multiple challenges demands a unified and a cooperative approach. The incoming government will have to work with all major political parties to find effective ways of addressing the vital economic and security issues.

Published in The Express Tribune, January 17^th, 2024.

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