India-Maldives meltdown
The once-close ties between India and the Maldives hit a new low over the weekend, as the island nation moved forward with its demand for New Delhi to withdraw troops based on the islands. Although a troop eviction had been on the cards for a while — President Mohamed Muizzu came to power in November after promising to do so — the speed of movement on the issue has still been surprising. But despite Muizzu’s great interest in moving his country closer to China, India remains the Maldives’ biggest trading partner and a major source of tourists, who power the country’s economy. However, there has been widespread discontent in the Maldives over the attitudes of Indian tourists and the Indian government in general, which is why Muizzu’s ‘India out’ campaign was so successful.
Still, the spark that inflamed the current tensions remains odd, to say the least — three Maldivian cabinet ministers’ decision to direct undiplomatic language at the Indian PM after his efforts to promote tourism to the Lakshwadeep islands. Lakshwadeep is an Indian territory of 36 small islands with a climate and natural beauty similar to the Maldives but significantly less development or tourism infrastructure. The ensuing calls on both sides to boycott trade and tourism could have a devastating impact on the island nation due to its high economic dependence on India and the fact that ‘replacing’ any decline in tourists from India will take a while, which could cripple tourism. India’s response, however, has been to shoot itself in the foot, picking on a tiny historical ally in a way that is only cementing its credentials as a regional bully.
It should be noted that the Indian troop presence not only gives New Delhi additional clout in the Indian Ocean, but also provides a degree of security to the Maldives, which is in an area frequented by pirates. Given the small size of the Maldivian Coast Guard — the country has no navy — means it depends on powerful allies for muscle. The situation gives Chinese policymakers an opportunity to supplant India and expand Beijing’s influence on the high seas.
Published in The Express Tribune, January 16th, 2024.
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