Bangladesh’s sham election and its implications
The writer is former Dean Faculty of Social Science, University of Karachi and can be reached at amoons@hotmail.com
If India, China and Russia congratulated Sheikh Hasina on securing a ‘landslide victory’ in the January 7 general elections, the US and the UK expressed their reservations on the purported fairness of the vote. In view of the large-scale arrests and crackdown on opposition parties, particularly the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), Awami League’s (AL) victory in the January 7 elections was a foregone conclusion. Winning 222 out of the 298 seats in the lower house, AL managed a two-thirds majority but at a heavy price. Not only did the opposition parties boycott the elections, the voter turnout was pretty dismal. Large-scale rigging at polling stations was also reported in the media.
In an article published in Aljazeera on January 9, Shamim Chowdhury lamented: “Given that the election was uncontested by the country’s main opposition, the Bangladesh Nationalist Party, amid concerns that it would be rigged, and with large swaths of the 120 million eligible voters abstaining, it is hardly unexpected that the Awami League swept the board. Officials say some 40 percent of voters went to the polls, but media reports and analysts suggest the real figure is likely not more than 30 percent.” With large-scale coercion and the use of state power to silence the opposition as well as the media, Sheikh Hasina, who has now secured a 4th consecutive term, dubbed the BNP a traitor political party.
The January 7, 2024 elections in Bangladesh will be remembered as the most controversial election in the country’s history. Yet Sheikh Hasina denied allegations of rigging arguing that 27 parties took part in elections along with hundreds of independent candidates. According to Shamim Chowdhury, “many of Sunday’s so-called independents are Awami League supporters.” Therefore, “the road to a one-party state has been a steady one, with Sheikh Hasina, the world’s longest serving female prime minister being placed at the helm of the country for a fourth consecutive term, and for all intents and purposes, unchallenged. As things stand, Hasina remains the high priestess of dynastic democracy.” A dark era of one-party rule under the garb of democracy in Bangladesh is now a reality.
If Bangladesh under Sheikh Hasina is becoming a one-party state then Awami League’s past struggle for democracy and the rule of law during Pakistan days means a great betrayal. The BNP while rejecting the January 7 general elections decided not to go for strikes and demonstrators but to focus on mass contacts and mobilisation of popular support against the Sheikh Hasina regime. According to Abdul Moyeen Khan, standing committee member of BNP: “The turnout of 40 percent is simply unbelievable. In the last one hour, 13 percent of the votes were cast; while 27 percent of the votes were cast in the first seven hours. This is absurd. Besides, there are several media reports and video footage where irregularities were captured. People did not go to the polling centers responding to the BNP’s calls to boycott the elections. So this election will not be acceptable to the international community. Our movement will continue until a democratic government is established in the country.”
It is yet to be seen how the Sheikh Hasina regime will deal with the legitimacy crisis given the lowest ever turnout of voters; fascist methods to prevent opposition parties from contesting elections; and the complacent attitude of the election commission and judiciary. All this raises questions of how Bangladesh is fast becoming a ‘deep state’ and how the ruling clique by controlling the instruments of power is establishing a civil dictatorship. Will India, a close ally of Awami League, bail out Bangladesh if sanctions are imposed by the United States and the European Union, depriving Dhaka of its 45 billion dollars worth of garment exports? How will the people of Bangladesh, who rendered enormous sacrifices for democracy, tolerate another phase of Sheikh Hasina’s authoritarian rule? The surge of economic predicament of Bangladesh in the form of growing inflation, rising poverty level, periodic strikes of garment factory workers for better wages, energy shortfalls and general price hike will make things cumbersome for the Sheikh Hasina regime.
Post-election scenario in Bangladesh needs to be examined in three ways.
One, allegations of fraud and manipulation in the elections cannot be taken care of by just calling the BNP a terrorist political party. Substantial evidence of rigging and lowest-ever voter turnout on the election day cannot be denied by the Hasina regime particularly when major opposition parties boycotted elections and the lower house will be dominated by AL members. Jatiya party, which is perceived as a B team of AL, cannot be a substitute to BNP or other opposition parties. AL already knew that holding elections under a caretaker setup would lead to its defeat as people wanted change after the 15-year-long rule of Sheikh Hasina. Lust for power and patronage which became a hallmark of AL led to large scale pre-poll rigging and suppression of opposition parties. The AL government crackdown on BNP demonstrations calling for a caretaker government to hold elections exposed the fascist mindset of Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina.
Two, public acceptance of the ‘sham’ elections in Bangladesh would mean a one-party dictatorship in Bangladesh. Around 25,000 workers and leaders of BNP and banned Jamaat-e-Islami were arrested when a heavy crackdown by the state was launched against opposition parties in October. It remains to be seen how a dictatorial rule will be imposed on the people of Bangladesh which is against their political traditions. Will media and civil society further acquiesce to strong armed tactics of the Sheikh Hasina regime? In order to garner popular support, the main opposition party BNP first needs to put its own house in order and detach itself from a legacy of corruption and nepotism which it was blamed for while it was in power from 2001-2006.
Three, the ‘success story’ of Bangladesh written by Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina during her three consecutive terms in power will be forgotten if she continues with her dictatorial mode of governance. There is still time for her to accept that January 7 elections were controversial, steps down from power and announce fresh elections to be held under a caretaker government.
Published in The Express Tribune, January 16th, 2024.
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