Poll says Imran leads approval ratings

Despite being in jail, former prime minister Imran Khan led the approval ratings for political leaders at the national level, with three times former prime minister Nawaz Sharif narrowly behind him, the Gallup Pakistan’s survey finding revealed on Thursday.

Though Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf’s (PTI) founder is leading the survey, the survey findings have showed that Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) Quaid Nawaz Sharif’s ratings have improved, while Imran’s ratings have remained consistent more or less.

Also, the survey results stated that the gap between the PML-N and the PTI has been narrowing in the last eight months, slowly and consistently, as shown by surveys done in March, June, November and December 2023.

The organisation said that the sample size of the latest round of survey marked as December 2023 throughout the report was around 5,000 men and women. Between June and December, 2023, the survey said, the gap between Imran and Nawaz in terms of approval rating has reduced considerably.

Just a month before the general elections, the Gallup Pakistan issued its political weather report for 2024, carrying key findings about political leaders and parties, among other things. In terms of approval ratings for leaders, it read, Imran leads with Nawaz narrowly behind at the national level.

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“Within Punjab,” it said, “Nawaz Sharif [is] ahead of Imran Khan.” It added that while Nawaz’s ratings had improved, Imran’s remained almost consistent. The survey showed that the gap between PML-N and PTI has been narrowing in the last eight months slowly but consistently.

In March 2023, the gap between PML-N and PTI was 21% in Punjab with PTI in the lead. The gap is now around 2% in December 2023 surveys. In the crucial 30 days up to the election in February 2024, it adds, it would be important to see if the trend continues or is reversed.

In Punjab, the electoral contest one month before the election seems competitive and close to general election 2018 situation in terms of popular voting intentions. The survey said that 34% and 32% of surveyed voters in December 2023 said they would vote for the PTI and the PML-N, respectively.

The gap between the two parties is 2%, it noted, which is within the error margin of the survey and statistically insignificant. In Punjab, it said, different regions showed varying support for the two main parties – PTI led with reasonable margin in north Punjab, but was neck-to-neck in west and central Punjab.

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The PML-N seems to be in a lead in south Punjab and the PPP also having reasonable support there. “In central Punjab,” it said, “The TLP [Tehreek-e-Labbaik, Pakistan] had a spoiler vote.” Since north Punjab was 10% of total Punjab seats, it maintained, it was safe to say that electoral race was quite competitive.

In Sindh, the Gallup Pakistan said, het PPP was the largest political party with the PTI being the second. “The PPP leads in Sindh over other parties,” it read. However, it added, its support was less strong in Karachi region as opposed to the interior or rural Sindh.

In Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa (K-P), the report said, the PTI was in lead but would have considerable challenges given the emergence of alliances, adding that 45% of the voters surveyed in K-P in December 2023 claimed that they would like to vote for PTI.

In general election 2018, it said, the PTI had a vote share of 37%, meaning “there is a rise in the PTI popularity”, however not very significant. Vote of parties other than PTI was concentrated in different regions, which could help them win seats despite lagging behind in terms of KP-wide popular vote.

For example, the JUI-F has significant vote share in south K-P and the PML-N has significant vote share in Hazara. The survey added that an alliance between parties can, therefore, give a reasonable competition to the PTI in various territories.