Year 2023 — the world away from Pakistan

So, another year passed with Pakistani politics still roiling in gutter, debate without substance and national discourse apparently directionless, because the intelligentsia — the very heart and soul of any society — is clueless under sheer apathy and or denial. The hordes of commentary on domestic politics hardly create anything productive except the raging conspiracy theories and misinformation.

A look at the bygone year beyond Pakistan seems instructive. Wars in Gaza and Ukraine, the proliferation of Artificial Intelligence (AI), climate change, the relative decline of democracy and the free world, disconnect between the global Street and the State, uncertain and uneven economic development, and the slow death of globalisation, etc can be identified as some of the enduring trends in 2023.

PEW Research Centre, a US organisation, in its annual report dated December 8, 2023, outlines some developments. In the US, views about government and state institutions suffer from increasing negativity. An overwhelming majority of Americans (79%) expressed strong reservations about national politics, with only 2% offering any positive comment. Almost one third (28%) Americans hold unfavourable opinions of both major political parties — Republicans and Democrats — the highest in past 30 years. In 1994, only 6% held such negative opinions. In 2022, polls suggested a growing number in both parties describing the other party as ‘more immoral, dishonest, and closed-minded’. And like Pakistan, even the US Supreme Court is not spared. For the first time in over 30 years of opinion polling, US SC reviews are more negative than positive. So much for growing disaffection with the state and governance.

On technology, about half of Americans find increased usage of AI in daily life unsettling — a marked increase since 2022, when negative views of AI were just 14 %. Most of the 19 surveyed nations, except the US, see social media (SM) being good for democracy. Singapore’s approval of SM at 71% is the highest (world median is 57%). The US disapproval of SM stands at 54%. And a large number (55%) of US adults approve restrictions on false information online, even if entails limiting freedom of information.

Domestically, gun violence in America has recorded almost 50% increase in kids/teen fatalities, which jumped from 1,732 deaths in 2019 to 2,590 in 2021. Socio-psychologically, around 53% Americans report visitation by a dead relative in ‘dream or in another form’. A healthy 31% claim such visitation in some other form. Socially, 57% of US adults would leave 15% or less tip in a restaurant, whereas 2% would leave none. Economically, about 20% Americans ageing 65 and older were still employed in 2023 as part of workforce. This figure nearly doubled in the last 35 years. Similarly, almost half (46%) of the US workers would not take all paid holidays that their employers offer. And interestingly, 40%, a record number of 40-year-olds in the US, have never been married.

On education, almost half of American adults disapprove race and ethnicity influencing admission decisions in select colleges and universities. Americans are losing their faith in science. In 2019, 73% claimed science had positive effects on society, now down to 57%. Similarly, most Asian Americans favourably view their ancestral homelands except Chinese Americans.

Globally, the war in Gaza has spotlighted the Jewish influence within the US state, the discomfort within the World Jewry at Israel’s genocidal use of excessive force, and the economic and political hits that Zionism is enduring. A March/April US survey found just 35% Israelis optimistic about an independent Palestinian state peacefully coexisting alongside Israel. This optimism eroded by 15 % since 2013.

Gaza conflict scuttled expansion of Abrahamic Accords, enhanced Iranian influence, exacerbated the ‘Street and State’ cleavages more prominently in the Islamic World, and highlighted Palestine question again. The ‘other’ war in Ukraine has hit a stalemate, and there are renewed talks for talks and an armistice.

Year 2023 remains a breakthrough year for AI. As AI matures, policymakers and others need ‘to walk and chew gum’ that is to maximise AI’s many potential benefits, while proactively containing its many risks through legislation and regulation. Addressing near-term risks like AI exacerbating human inequality and other harms need urgent attention.

The previous year, like years before, was often dominated by intensifying disasters — like wildfires (Maui), earthquakes (Turkey and Syria), etc — and the effects of climate change. This necessitates critical actions like reducing carbon footprint, managing climate change, relevant allocations in national budgets, and force readiness and support for disaster-vulnerable regions like Pakistan.

In major-power rivalry, President Xi and President Biden continued to jockey for power and global dominance. Almost six-in-ten US adults (59%) consider Chinese-owned TikTok as minor threat to national security. Sino-Russia entente, Sino-US trade, and technology war (the balloon incident and spying), various scenarios vis-à-vis Taiwan and the likelihood of competition turning into armed conflict remained the foci of multidimensional analysis.

According to the MIT Technical Review, Year 2023 ushered in some fabulous innovative technologies. For high cholesterol levels, the gene-editing tool CRISPR has entered clinical stage from the Labs. To obviate the short supply of human organs, scientists are genetically engineering pigs for organ-transplant, and 3D-printing of lungs using a patient’s own cells. Genomic sequencing tools enabled scientists to read very old strands of human DNA, opening new research disciplines in history and anthropology. Open AI can generate stunning artwork effortlessly.

In the chip industry, a popular open standard called RISC-V is enabling easier manufacturing of chips. Consumer ‘componentry and communications technology’ have facilitated drone proliferation, especially the relatively complex military drones at much lower prices. The Turkish Bayraktar TB2 and other inexpensive drones have changed warfare. Likewise, electric vehicles (EVs) are becoming popular with batteries becoming cheaper. From mountains of discarded batteries, recycling can now reclaim critically needed metals like lithium, nickel, and cobalt for future manufacturing at reduced cost. The James Webb Space Telescope has redefined astronomy through breathtaking images of distant cosmos, awaiting awe-inspiring discoveries.

By comparison, as per Google’s yearly search data (2023), tech-savvy Pakistanis are likening ChatGPT, AI, and streaming platforms. They were enamoured by iPhone 15, TikToker Hareem Shah, Aliza Sehar, actors Akshay Kumar and Kajol. The film Barbie, with its feminist empowerment theme was a local hit. Most tried learning new features on WhatsApp for communication. Majority searched for Canadian immigration, and skills like extending flowers’ life and removing mehndi. Cricket mania captivated many.

So much so far. Happy New Year!

Published in The Express Tribune, January 4^th, 2024.

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