Pesky neighbours, ever-reliable friends hallmarks of outgoing year’s foreign policy

At the start of the year, which coincidentally happened to be two months after the banned Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) announced the end of a ceasefire with the Pakistani government, Peshawar’s Red Zone was rocked by a suicide blast that killed hundreds.

Although the TTP initially claimed responsibility for the heinous attack and later retracted the statement, the incident set the tone for Pakistan’s relations with the Taliban-led Afghanistan government throughout the year, as Afghanistan was given an ultimatum to pick a side between Pakistan and TTP.

This ultimatum came through a high-level delegation, comprised of the then defence minister Khawaja Asif and the Director General of the Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI), who visited Afghanistan and shared irrefutable evidence with the Afghan Taliban about the involvement of TTP in terrorist attacks on Pakistani soil.

However, despite the ultimatum and the irrefutable evidence, which also included precise locations of key TTP leaders hiding in Afghanistan, terrorist attacks continued to rise during the year. And as the year draws to a close, the relationship between the Pakistani government and the Taliban led Afghanistan government is presently severely strained, with little hope of reconciliation in 2024.

The same is the case for Pakistan’s relationship with its other neighbour, India. Although a ray of hope for a breaking of the ice did emerge in May of this year, when the then foreign minister Bilawal Bhutto Zardari visited Goa, India to attend the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) summit.

However, those hoping for an improvement in the fractured relationship of the two countries were left disappointed as both sides traded blame vis-a-vis Kashmir and terrorism at the summit. This disappointment is expected to continue in 2024 as well but with elections due in both countries there is hope that there will be some movement in the bilateral ties in the second half of the year.

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However, the hope might be misplaced, given the Indian Supreme Court’s recent decision upholding the constitutionality of the Prime Minister Narendra Modi led government to revoke Jammu and Kashmir’s special status, conferred to it by Article 370 of the Indian Constitution.

Problematic neighbours aside, Pakistan’s relationship with its ever-reliable neighbour China, the country’s steadfast partner in both geo-strategic and geo-economic areas, remained strong. This was evidenced by the fact that China rolled over loans given to Pakistan, when the country seemed on the brink of default. However, when both sides celebrated the 10th anniversary of the China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) this year, there was consensus that Pakistan had not realised the true potential of the flagship project of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).

Despite the consensus, the two sides announced the second phase of CPEC, progress on which is expected after an elected government is in place in Pakistan.

Similar to China, Pakistan’s friends in the Gulf region, particularly Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE), also rescued it from the precipice of default this year by rolling over debt and extending new loans. The financial help has made Pakistan confident that both Saudi Arabia and the UAE will also aid in reviving the country’s economy, via investments in different economic sectors, through the civil-military led initiative known as Special Investment Facilitation Council (SIFC), which was created earlier this year.

And while the United States of America (USA) might not be investing in Pakistan through the SIFC yet, some semblance of normalcy returned to bilateral ties between the two countries this year. It is pertinent to mention that bilateral ties had been considerably damaged in 2022 after former prime minister Imran Khan had alleged that the USA was behind his ouster and had presented the infamous cypher as evidence of the USA’s involvement in toppling his government.

Presently it seems both countries have moved on from the cher as multiple high-level exchanges took place between the two countries and recently the Chief of Army Staff, General Syed Asim Munir, undertook a maiden visit to the USA, where he held a series of meetings with the USA officials including the Secretary of State, Secretary Defense, Chairman Joint Chiefs of Staff, and CENTCOM Chief.

Even though the visit highlighted that despite the USA’s withdrawal from Afghanistan, it was keen to stay engaged with Pakistan on areas of its interests, changing geostrategic realities and a growing USA-China rivalry, might eventually lead to Pakistan being asked to pick a side. Whether that will be in 2024 or some years down the line, remains to be seen.