Prevalent world environment and common future
The writer is President of IPRI, a former ambassador and a retired Major General
The ensuing great power geopolitical competition, complemented by attendant impacts on the international politics and states relations, is evolving with rapidity. The environment is convoluted further by the impact of military confrontations and natural phenomenon like climate change, pandemics, floods, earthquakes, etc. The War in Ukraine perpetuates with the deaths of 10,000 civilians, including over 560 children. Gaza is a heap of rubble and fire, with about 18,000 deaths, including those of thousands of children and women. Thousands missing are believed killed. But the heartless Israeli war, with US support, continues with impunity and unprecedented cruelty. Doctors, paramedics, humanitarian aid workers of the UN and other agencies and journalists are no exception.
Both these wars had peculiar causes and capricious consequences. The Russian special operations in Ukraine were induced by the expansion of NATO to its neighbourhood, despite repeated Russian warnings, and perhaps in spite of understanding between Russia and the US. The Israeli rage and genocide, like the Gaza bombing campaign, was inspired by a rather inexplicable strategic surprise at the hands of least equipped Hamas against a highly trained, very well equipped and technologically superior Israeli army very well supported by satellites and other intelligence feeds. It will remain an enigma for many military analysts as to how Israel could be surprised or whether it was an “intentional lapse” to forge a reason to decimate Palestine. The Ukraine war has lingered on for about 22 months, yet the death and devastation in two months of Gaza pounding by Israeli ruinous munitions, supported by the US and allies, remains unmatched in speed and lethality.
The history is replete with the examples that all the wars ultimately end at the negotiating table with regrets on death and destruction, human miseries and longer lasting sufferings. Unvaryingly after culmination of each war the men of those times promised not to fight again, and join hands to work together for better future of their people. Yet the wars perpetuate as a policy tool, especially by the mightier nations.
During cold war the major wars between the blocs were averted because the leaders kept talking to each other. But this is no more the case, especially with regard to the US and Russia. However, some rapprochement is in the offing between China and USA. Luckily, the horrors of Hiroshima and Nagasaki have made the nuclear weapons the weapons of war deterrence rather than the means of war fighting.
The short-lived peace in the post-USSR breakup era was assailed by the post-9/11 unilateralism, paving the way for a multipolar world, and now the world with alliances and groupings woven around ‘minilateralism’. De-globalisation, decoupling and de-risking aimed at obtaining advantage over competing rivals is the new normal. These initiatives include few and exclude others along North-South, East-West and Rich-Poor divides. The mini-alliances at the cost of multilateral alliances are eroding the global willingness for a joint response to the challenges like climate change, food insecurity, water scarcity, pandemics, economic inequality, terrorism, drug-trafficking and the misleading algorithm-driven media narratives.
The world powers need to collectively work on a peaceful end of Russia-Ukraine war and ceasefire in Palestine. The way forward is to deescalate and negotiate. Killing of how many Palestinian children and women will pacify Israeli anger? As embedded in UN resolutions and Oslo Accords, two-states solution is the way forward. Repeat of a holocaust can only add to anger, reaction and perpetuation of religious and civilisational conflict, but not an ‘end of a civilisation’.
Conflict resolution in South Asia paving the way for greater connectivity, trade and economic cooperation that currently stands at dismal 25% compared to 60% of EU and 35% of East Asia, is essential. The US and others must help recommence the peace process between Pakistan and India. Pakistan-China closer cooperation in the BRI and CPEC causes anxiety in India and the US, whereas this cooperation is non-military and purely economic. Indian portrayal of China as rival and exploiting US’s China phobia to build its military might has to be stopped too. Both are nuclear powers. Some miscalculation could catapult them into a mutually-assured destruction. Pakistan and India could begin with climate diplomacy as they are both affected by similar weather phenomena like glacial melting, cyclones, etc.
Artificial Intelligence (AI) and social media are unbridled and uncontrolled and add to fake news, misperceptions and psychosocial issues. AI chat boxes are impacting quality of research and education, being easier way out against sustained hardwork. We need some common rules and agreements to limit AI’s possible negative impacts in peace and war.
Despite the US containment efforts over past few years, China has become the world’s second largest economy; it is there and is to stay too. Decoupling of US-China economy is detrimental for both. The supply chain to which consumers of the global West are adapt cannot be replaced easily. The US and West need to develop some understanding for coexistence. India and the US should stop demonising CPEC that is so essential for Pakistan’s shift to geo-economics.
Published in The Express Tribune, December 27th, 2023.
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