End of a hoax

Not surprisingly, the Indian Supreme Court has unanimously upheld the Modi government’s abrogation of articles 370 and 35A of the Indian constitution in August 2019 that had granted “autonomy” to Indian occupied Kashmir (IOK). This decision formally ends the elaborate hoax that had been imposed on the Kashmiri people since October 1949 when these articles were inserted into the Indian constitution. In reality this “special status” had ended in August 1953, when the Indian quisling, Sheikh Abdullah, was unceremoniously removed as Prime Minister of IOK by Indian Prime Minister Nehru, and sent to prison for 11 years. It was actually from then onwards that Kashmiri “autonomy” — authority over all issues except foreign relations, defence and communications — ended for good. Now even this pretentious hoax has been abandoned.

That article 370 was a charade from the beginning is obvious from the fact that the occupied state was ruled either by Indian collaborators elected through rigging or through governors appointed by New Delhi. Consequently, every government in Srinagar has been a mere Indian puppet. But, even this façade was unacceptable to Modi. Projecting Pakistan as the “bogeyman” and enflaming Hindu fascism against Indian Muslims, he manipulated a rubber-stamp parliament to endorse this latest assault on IOK. Then, the Indian judiciary, already co-opted or intimidated by Modi’s Hindutva brigades, as has also been done with the media, bureaucracy and even military, delivered a Kangaroo-Court judgment. These “honourable justices” had already demonstrated their anti-Muslim bias in the flagrantly flawed judgment of 2019 in the Babri Masjid case. This very same judiciary has also turned a blind eye to the ongoing repression against Kashmiri and Indian Muslims just as was done following the Gujarat massacre of Muslims by Modi’s henchmen in 2002.

Undoubtedly, Modi will project the court’s decision as vindication of his Kashmir policy which will also help him win the forthcoming national elections with a thumping majority. Moreover, Indian repression of Kashmiri Muslims will increase while Modi will become even more belligerent towards Pakistan and perhaps even China. Official Indian rhetoric already threatens occupation of Azad Kashmir and Gilgit-Baltistan, while the disputed status of Kashmir is rejected, as is any dialogue with Pakistan.

However, these developments will prove to be a pyrrhic victory for Modi. Within IOK, his policy has already antagonized even the pro-Indian groups while further alienating the resilient freedom movement. Revoking article 35A, in particular, which ensured special Kashmiri rights over property, employment etc for all Kashmiris, has already incensed the entire population of the occupied state, since they will lose their privileges to non-Kashmiri settlers. Moreover, this settler colonialism, which mimics Israeli Jewish settler aggression in Palestine, is aimed at demographically changing the Muslim majority in IOK, which will cause further instability. Consequently, control over IOK will become even more tenuous than before despite the presence of over 900 thousand Indian occupying troops.

Regionally, Modi’s action has intensified the two-front confrontation with Pakistan and China. This is clear from Pakistan’s rejection of the Indian judicial decision as “a travesty of justice” and that India has “no right to make unilateral decisions on the status of this disputed territory against the will of the Kashmiri people”. Similarly, China has stated that it “has never recognized the so-called Union Territory of Ladakh” and that “the Kashmir issue needs a peaceful and proper resolution aligning with the UN Charter, Security Council resolutions and relevant bilateral agreements”. Such escalation in tensions between three nuclear weapon states has intensified India’s geopolitical challenges while Kashmir has become a nuclear flash point that undermines both regional and global security.

Pakistan and India have repeatedly clashed in Kashmir and, despite the ceasefire of 2021, troops from both sides remain locked in eyeball to eyeball confrontation along the Line of Control. Continuing Indian repression in IOK could trigger yet another crisis such as the confrontation that resulted from the Pulwama incident in February 2019. Pakistan’s quid pro quo plus response forced India to back down at the time. Yet the Modi government remains intransigent, encouraged in its belligerence by the strategic partnership with America. Indeed, it is this hubris that led to Modi’s August 2019 action in IOK, derailing any engagement with Pakistan for the foreseeable future.

This Indian action also provoked a Chinese reaction leading to renewed clashes in the Galwan sector of Ladakh since June 2020. As a result, China has reportedly taken control over a thousand square kilometers of territory claimed by India. Despite talks between military leaders of the two sides, tensions have not subsided and troops on both sides remain dangerously poised for renewed hostilities. China has also been instrumental in reviving the Kashmir dispute twice in the Security Council for the first time since 1965. Therefore, Indian attempts to change the status of Kashmir in 2019 have clearly backfired.

While India claims it is prepared to fight a two and a half wars — with Pakistan, China and the Kashmiris — it has failed to even win the half war against Kashmiri freedom fighters despite trying for three decades. Even the Indian alliance with the US against China has failed to change this geopolitical reality.

Those in Pakistan still clinging to the hope of a dialogue and normalisation with India should now read the writing on the wall: under Modi the possibility of this happening is less than zero. In fact, Modi is likely to up the ante, perhaps even launching false-flag operations to test Pakistan’s resolve and in the bargain shore up his popularity before the coming Indian elections. In this situation, the only option for Pakistan is to strengthen its strategic partnership with China while working together with Beijing to oppose Indian machinations in IOK. At the same time, Pakistan needs to engage in proactive diplomacy to highlight Indian atrocities against the Kashmiris while also underscoring the potential dangers of a clash between three nuclear powers resulting from continued Indian adventurism in the region, especially in IOK.

Published in The Express Tribune, December 25^th, 2023.

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