How predictable are the next elections?

Now that the matter is settled in the courts and the Election Commission has announced a schedule it is all guns go on 8th February for elections to nation’s 16th National Assembly. It shall mark the return of a representative government to lead and guide the nation through its most difficult times since independence in 1947. If a government can do so successfully it shall be remembered as the saviour, but if it fails, or the journey through the tenure of the assembly is disrupted because of a government’s own volition or because of extraordinary circumstances, the in-vogue system of governance would have made itself irrelevant to the nature of the challenges and would be presumed inadequate. It is possible then that another system may replace it in a rewritten constitution, duly and conveniently authorised by the courts. The polls in February, hence, are consequential in more than one way.

Without knowing what they will deliver and what fate waited after the elections, the circumstances were somewhat similar in 1970 – though constituted of entirely different dynamics and elements. East Pakistan was on a boil politically frustrated by West’s inattention. The Awami League was a significant factor yet subsumed within the broader construct of the state of Pakistan. Politics was emerging out of the shadow of a long, continuous military rule under two military men. The One-Unit formulation had been dispensed for the distinct composition of the five provinces as desired and formulated in the 1956 Constitution.

Fearing the overwhelming domination of East Bengal which constituted East Pakistan – the name that Pakistan’s fifth province carried imposing the linkage – the federal structure in the constitution had stood replaced with the one-unit construct in 1955. It had followed a historic sweep of the Bengali nationalist parties in the 1954 elections to the East Pakistan Legislative Assembly eliminating Muslim League off the political face of East Pakistan. One-Unit tilted politics in favour of West Pakistanis reducing East Pakistanis to equal level despite being much larger in numbers. Yahya Khan in his iteration of Ayub’s martial law had reverted the federation back to its five provinces construct even if he ruled by decree through the Legal Framework Orders (LFO) than a constitution – the 1956 constitution had stood abrogated under the 1958 martial law. Yahya had hoped this might appease some political disquiet in East Pakistan.

The results thrown up by the 1970 elections upended any consideration of keeping the country in the control of the western wing, as had been the predominant and perpetual political concern. The Awami League swept the polls in the eastern wing winning the majority vote and turned out the largest party in the proposed National Assembly. Zulfikar Ali Bhutto, now a cohort of Yahya Khan, the military dictator, carried West Pakistan but fell short of overhauling Awami League’s Shaikh Mujib Ur Rahman. Western wing’s machinations began to defy what the polls had ordained. Shaikh Mujib asserted his right to form the government but was blatantly denied this right. That set the rebellion into motion.

Political failures and intrigues of 1970 brought on the 1971 war and the secession of East Pakistan. We could not stand the will of the people as was expressed in the polls. ZAB was the Establishment’s horse, but he lost to someone who wasn’t desired in that position. The manifestations of this simplistic formulation left deep civilisational scars with dastardly consequences. The country was dismembered. It left us two lessons: either respect the will of the people or the harm will be immeasurable or hope or manage results in favour of what might suit the palate. All elections since then have been allegedly compromised and designed to address the context of the time. That’s a sad but popular reflection.

In this turn though all bets are safe. There is the assurance of multiple options which exist in today’s political landscape. Even though Nawaz Sharif is touted as the favourite there are other permutations which can emerge. Bilawal Bhutto and his PPP remain the dark horse which can always galvanise coalitions in its favour – Balochistan may already be turning into a possible prize addition. Bilawal may not find immediate favour because of PPP’s restricted appeal beyond Sindh but there is still time till elections and a week is a long time in politics. The IPP is another vehicle which can gather around it most low-key variables in each province and head a coalition which can be as close to a national government as any. It also has notable political and policy icons with proven credentials in governance. It can answer the times when cooperative than confrontational ways are the need. Nawaz Sharif and his cohorts may like to pay heed.

There will always be two aspects which can spoil the day for Nawaz Sharif, or rather three – two pre-poll and one post-poll. His instinct for combat and his inability to find credibility among the electorate – perceptually – will lower his stock, and any hopes or assurances he may have garnered in the months since his return leading to the new elections may turn sour. After all no one bets on a losing prospect. It is for Nawaz Sharif then to hold his horses and relearn to improve his stock among the stakeholders in a vastly different environment and a changed electorate; there are no givens here. Assuming he wins, it shall be a painstaking journey fighting a legacy of inept governance for the sixteen months under his brother’s charge and reestablishing credibility among an electorate which carries a sullen image of him and his cabal. What will recreate the magic will be matchless performance and honest and dedicated hard work without the slips that most his tenures have betrayed. His post-poll slip though will be the same – his combative instinct which rarely is ever repressed. Many think he is bound to crash into the wall. Wagers are on. If he can save from these three pits and perform strongly, restoring faith and hope, he will be a legacy winner.

So, the next election is as open as an election should be. Especially in the wake of a period of governance which has seen most political players fail at harnessing the country’s potential and carving a way out of its multiplying troubles. From a presumptive winner, to a dark horse, to an unlikely throw-up, the options and permutations are as many as slips between the cup and the lips. PTI voters will likely write their own tale with their feet. That message will need to be heeded too. The peril else can only be disastrous, history tells us. Those that make it to the parliament on the PTI ticket may be less well known but it will grant the party a much-needed breather and serve it some saving grace. The rest can slug it out as the race begins.

Published in The Express Tribune, December 22^nd, 2023.

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