What will happen if global warming targets are missed
The writer is an academic and researcher. He is also the author of Development, Poverty, and Power in Pakistan, available from Routledge
Just a few days before the climate summit (COP28), currently taking place in Dubai, the UN Environment Programme released a damning assessment via its Emissions Gap report. This report has noted that our planet is currently on a disastrous path of warming up by 2.5C to 2.9C by the end of the current century. This estimation is based on existing emissions-cutting efforts, rather than lofty pledges made at climate moots, which most countries then fail to abide by.
If global temperatures go up by nearly 3C, instead of being capped at the 1.5C mark, the results will be catastrophic — posing an existential threat to humanity, despite all our technology and ability to adapt to even the harshest environments.
The Earth has survived drastic climate changes in the past. There have been five extinction events going back millions of years. The last one was triggered by a massive asteroid collision, causing the extinction of the dinosaurs around 65 million years ago. However, we are now living in the age of the Anthropocene, where human activities have themselves started to have a major impact on the planet’s climate and the health of its ecosystems.
The aforementioned UNEP report highlights some of the major human-induced problems that are posing major challenges for billions of people around the world, including in countries like ours, as well as to our natural environment.
In our quest to increase productivity and profits, for instance, humans have overexploited natural resources, introduced invasive species and engaged in aggressive deforestation. Such anthropomorphic activities now risk triggering a chain reaction of broader ecosystem collapse.
The present rate of species extinction is estimated to be hundreds of times higher than it would have been under natural circumstances. One million animal and plant species are facing the threat of extinction. The mass disappearance of multiple plant and animal species will have ripple effects which can then lead to co-extinction of other interdependent species, and the collapse of entire ecosystems. Examples of such a collapse are the ongoing bleaching of the great barrier reef, or the destruction of multiple rainforest ecosystems to plant palm oil and other crops, or profit from logging.
Groundwater depletion (due to unsustainable extraction) is another major concern which is causing other problems such as threatening water and food supplies. In Pakistan alone, groundwater provides 90% of domestic water within rural areas and 70% in urban areas. Over 50% of all water used for agriculture is also extracted from the ground. Despite its significance, groundwater has been very poorly managed, and this vital resource is now under extreme stress in Pakistan, and in many other parts of the world.
The problem of glacial depletion is another major issue. Glaciers feed major river systems, such as the Indus or the Brahmaputra, and in turn supply water for drinking, irrigation, hydropower and ecosystems to several adjoining countries. The alarming glacial retreat due to global warming is causing ice mass to melt faster than snow can replace, which triggers floods and glacial lake outbursts. It will eventually cause major rivers to start shrinking. In cases where transborder rivers are shared by neighbours with preexisting tensions, water disputes can become a trigger-point for wider conflict.
Climate change is also leading to severe heatwaves which are going to make some areas inhabitable. This situation is set to worsen if global warming increases by nearly 3C. Scientific data suggests that by 2070, several parts of South Asia and the Middle East may regularly be exposed to deadly climate conditions for prolonged periods of time, which will make it very difficult for people to live there.
Despite all the climate moots which have been ongoing since the mid-1990s, the world has continued to pump increasing amounts of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere. Emissions went up 1.2% from 2021 to 2022. The world is thus fast approaching the critical warming threshold which will invariably alter life as we know it. We still have the chance to pull back from this fast-approaching point of no return, but it will take a greater global resolve than has been shown thus far.
Published in The Express Tribune, December 8th, 2023.
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