What to expect from elections

With elections nearly two and half months away, political activity seems to be gradually picking up. Except for those of PTI, the leaders of main political parties — PML-N, PPP and JUI — are fairly active holding large public meetings, discussing issues on media and giving their vision of how they intend to transform Pakistan from its current situation. They talk of their deeds and achievements and attribute their failures or inability to complete projects during their tenures to external factors and interference by the military establishment. In contrast, the response of the public to their speeches remains lukewarm and there is general despondency and lack of interest. The public give no credence to what is being said and this is so evident from their facial expressions on the television screen. It is not surprising for they have heard all these claims many times before and results are there for everyone to see.

Sentiments and past record aside, what is the present state of Pakistan and what should be our rational expectations? Politics remains highly confrontational and partly dysfunctional and the military having no confidence in the politicians continues to influence politics. The PTI with the largest vote bank and Imran Khan despite being in custody and laden with innumerable court cases still enjoys considerable latent support and sympathy, which is likely to positively reflect in his favour during elections.

The economy remains heavily dependent on IMF, international agencies and largesse of oil-rich Arab states. We have failed to fully benefit from CPEC despite China’s invaluable support. Nor have we tried to comprehend the extraordinary progress China has made in a relatively short period of time. Their pragmatism and desire to keep pace and even move ahead of the US in several critical areas of technology is phenomenal.

India’s fast economic growth and global influence too has failed to jolt us. Despite PM Narendra Modi’s prejudice against Muslims and other religious minorities, India’s strong economic growth and its potential as a regional counterweight to the rise of China have been the major factors that have catapulted India’s power. Bangladesh’s economic progress too has been impressive, although serious political challenges are standing in the way and pulling it down. Pakistan’s incoming leadership should take a long-term view on economic self-reliance and craft such a strategy. The long-term goal should be the complete transition away from an aid-based economy to a globally integrated and self-generating economy. This will only be possible if the incoming government seriously implements the fiscal and regulatory reforms that IMF and our own economists have been advising the government to adopt. Pakistan’s financial dependence has thwarted its growth, lowered its international image and above all adversely affected the lives of millions of its people. The advantage that Pakistan enjoys due to its geographical position has been denied due to disturbed conditions or unsatisfactory relations with its neighbours Afghanistan in the West and India in the East. The recent increase in terrorist attacks and the corrosive effects of the influence of TTP would need a more robust and comprehensive military law enforcement action accompanied by economic and welfare measures for the long-neglected region.

Seriously addressing the problems associated with the energy sector will be a key factor in correcting the country’s economy. At present, imports of expensive fossil fuels are a major drain on our financial resources and have an adverse impact on climate change. Load-shedding in industrial areas interrupts commerce and industry throughout the country, with increasing cost of production.

So, we go back to the central question: can the elections set the country on the path of stability and a better future of our people? There is no doubt that those countries where free and fair elections are held and there is no interference from institutions and political parties throw better quality leaders and command the confidence of the people. The redeeming factor is that if they fail to perform and live up to their promises, they are replaced with alternate choices, chosen freely by the people. In Pakistan for the last seventy-five years of its life, manipulations by politicians and institutions continue and basic constitutional obligations are violated. Probably, majority of us are not even conscious of the damage this has done and retarded our progress and lowered national image. How can this be prevented so that the elections in February next year help put Pakistan on the right course and better leadership emerges?

We have to break this cycle to put the country on the right course and elect leaders that perceive possibilities and have the capacity to initiate change. Leaders that are unblemished and command the respect of the people. This may sound idealistic and unrealistic. But are we destined to remain hostage of the past and unfairly underestimate Pakistan’s 240 million people devoid of positive attributes? The political parties must field a fair representation of the younger generation to contest elections and come out of their feudal and outdated mindset. This is very necessary considering the phenomenal impact of the fast changing technological and scientific developments in IT, microbiology and other fields in which the younger generation is far more adept. Equally important is that women are represented in accordance with their population or closer to it. History bears out that no country has progressed comprehensively without women’s involvement and participation. None of the major parties appear to be serious in giving them a fair representation and there is no serious discussion on the media.

Although by law there are restrictions on candidates and political parties on spending during elections, the past reminds us that these rules were mostly circumvented as oversight was weak. Whereas on paper the parties try to show expenditures in conformity with rules but far exceed the limit through clandestine means. Will this time the election commission be more vigilant and not accept the candidate’s declaration on face value?

Legitimacy and progress come when elections are fair and leaders honour their commitments to sustain economic growth and political stability.

Published in The Express Tribune, December 6^th, 2023.

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