Message from Margalla Dialogue
Margalla Dialogue has emerged as the premier security and development dialogue in the country ever since its inception in 2019. We live in the age of social media where lies and truths compete for attention cheek by jowl making it difficult to uncover truth in a carapace of lies. In the present age where communication technology and artificial intelligence have made dissemination of lies, half-truths and red herrings very convenient, the battle of narratives and ideas can only be won through a better idea. Truth in war time, as mentioned by Churchill, is so precious that it has to be guarded by a bodyguard of lies. Sobriquets like strategic communications are used to ennoble those specious narratives and tendentious commentaries but the fact remains that the truth lies buried somewhere in that cacophony of propaganda promoting home truths.
Nothing illustrates the power of narrative like the Gaza War where the oppressor’s version gets the primetime media space despite the facts crying out aloud for a reality check. The voice of Global South and countries like Pakistan therefore can only be heard if they initiate and spread their own dialogues. Fourth iteration of Margalla Dialogue that was held from 15th to 16th November at Islamabad, organised by Islamabad Policy Research Institute, showcased an eclectic mix of security, development, climate, economy and international relations experts who regaled the audience with their no holds barred discussions on emerging global security environment, non-traditional security threats, regional security dynamics and the impact of technology on media and society.
The dialogue included economic security as the centerpieces of discussion along with international law as the arbiter of interstate conflicts. In the first session on global environment under emerging global competition and its impact on regional security in developed world as well as Global South, US scholars like Dan Markey from USIP highlighted the perils of conflicts for countries like India and Pakistan due to their affiliation with the competing security alliances led by China and the US. Pakistan and India being nuclear armed countries need their own assessment of their threat spectrum minimising the possibilities of two-front war against India while allaying Pakistan’s concerns regarding internal destabilisation through proxy warfare. The message from Chinese and Russian speakers was of lowering the temperature in Ukraine and Gaza.
Former American ambassador Ms Robin Raphael who is presently affiliated with CSIS advised the US to reinvest in multilateral peace-making efforts in the Middle East and other regions, besides continuing with its calibrated de-escalation policy with China. She also exhorted the US to be more suave on diplomatic front so as not to cede space to other global powers.
Senator Mushahid Hussain quoted a Belfer Center-Harvard University study by Graham Allison titled ‘The Great Tech Rivalry: China vs the US’ that highlighted the overtaking of the US by China in high tech sector. For the first time in history a non-Western nation was challenging the hegemony of West led by the US and that was turning the US paranoid. He also predicted that the future conflict between China and the US would not be in the shape of wars but in the arenas of trade, economy and technology.
He also rued the US neglect in resolving some of the intractable conflicts like Palestine and Kashmir issues after the Cold War when the US power was at its peak. Instead of helping resolve those issues the preference was given to accumulation of more power. The lack of diversity in thought and inability to diverge from the officially sanctioned truth in the US are emerging to be its Achilles heel.
The session on regional and internal security featured a former Prime Minister and a former Finance Minister besides Pakistan’s Special Representative on Afghanistan and a former Corps Commander. Former PM Shahid Khaqan Abbasi opined that in Pakistani polity, politics trump economy and hence without fixing politics, economy cannot be fixed. The country in his opinion required predictability in political as well as economic decision-making as nothing dis-incentivised investors from investing in Pakistan more than the unpredictability of the policies and political instability. The country in his opinion would be best served through a parliamentary democratic system provided the system was allowed to work untrammeled by the institutional turf wars.
Former finance minister Miftah Ismail was very candid in his presentation in which he explained through graphs and data the structural problems that bedeviled the country’s economy. The budget deficit and the current account current deficit were closely interlinked and unless the country raised its revenues through tax reforms the economy would remain in doldrums. Poverty and population growth, according to him, were the two main challenges that a faltering economy was unable to address. The country needed to change the NFC based system and the provinces needed to be made more accountable and responsible for raising and managing their own revenues. Elite capture of the economy was needed to be eliminated and that could only be done if the taxation system eliminated subsidies and exemptions to influential quarters.
The discourse on media and society in an age of technology correctly diagnosed the monopolisation of the information and concomitant narratives by three big platforms as opposed to the diversity of opinions offered by mainstream electronic media. The shaping of opinions through data surveillance of personal choices on social media and the tyranny of algorithm driven addictive posts was aptly described. The most important message was the limitation of the mainstream electronic media in addressing the society’s needs as opposed to the ratings driven wants.
The discourse did touch upon the anonymity and lack of accountability of social media and citizen journalism briefly, but a more expansive discussion may have yielded some workable options for mainstream media’s reform to counter those challenges. PEMRA and media owners’ discussion was highlighted well but the implementation difficulties of the code of conduct needed more amplification. Perhaps effective libel laws and judiciary’s help might moderate some of the excesses of social media. Finally the pearl of high price that the discourse chased was: “whether in this post truth age the media is shaping the society or the society is shaping the media?” If latter was true what the risks (society’s irresponsible poses) are and if the former was true what are the responsibilities (of media), needed to be answered.
Overall the dialogue captured the dominant global political and security weltanschauung well, besides assessing the future challenges and their proposed solutions.
Published in The Express Tribune, November 21st, 2023.
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