Prepping for polls
Electioneering continues to pick up intensity as former prime minister Nawaz Sharif has begun traveling the country to welcome new recruits to his party, while PPP chief Bilawal Bhutto Zardari continues firing off barbs at the PML-N supremo. However, Bilawal’s big talk can’t take away from the fact that Nawaz is leaving Balochistan after making significant gains — some would say recoveries — in the former of several ‘electables’, including a few who previously held important roles in the PML-N before being ‘recruited’ to the Balochistan Awami Party (BAP) under suspicious circumstances.
Nawaz managed to bring back former Balochistan CM Jam Kamal and about two dozen others — mostly from BAP — while also holding seat adjustment and other alliance-related talks with most of the major parties in the province. The new recruits, coupled with the PML-N’s good relations with several smaller regional parties, could mean the next provincial government will almost certainly be headed by a Nawaz man, though whether or not a coalition is necessary remains to be seen. While it is still early, rebuilding a strong base in Balochistan could also make a critical difference at the national level, as the PPP’s grip on Sindh and the PML-N’s weakened standing in its own historical stronghold of Punjab mean the party will have to rely on seats everywhere, rather than a blowout in Punjab, if it is to return to power in Islamabad.
For the PPP, the PML-N’s gains are an embarrassment because the party was supposedly on the verge of absorbing BAP to become a force in Balochistan. Instead, it is looking unlikely that the PPP will be able to grow beyond Sindh and become a ‘national party’ again. Bilawal’s jab at Nawaz to “focus on Lahore” after the PML-N’s agreement with the MQM also makes sense in this context — the PPP has had limited success in its attempt to make inroads in Punjab, with the most notable ‘gain’ being overtures to the remnants of the PTI. Still, political alliances are made to be broken, and the climate could change significantly in the 80-odd days till the elections.
Published in The Express Tribune, November 16th, 2023.
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